The Making of the World Cup Forecast

Please join our team of macro researchers and football obsessives to learn why football and macro are the perfect match – and be the first to hear our 2026 World Cup forecast.

Thursday, June 4, 2026 
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Since 2018, we’ve published what we call “The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts” – applying the same macro framework we use for markets and the global economy to predict the World Cup. Now, what started as a one-off idea has become a tradition.

We’re hosting a webcast to walk through the making of the report – how the model has evolved, how we combine quantitative analysis with macro and narrative insights, and why football turns out to be a surprisingly good lens for top-down thinking.

We’ll also share our final tournament prediction – and attendees will hear it first.

What we’ll cover:
•    How the report started – and how it’s improved each cycle
•    The blend of data, narrative, and macro behind the model
•    Why football lends itself to a top-down framework
•    Our final 2026 World Cup call (revealed live)