Insights

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a modestly growing economy imbued with post-election optimism, while highlighting some caution about employment.  The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing modest growth but increased post-election expectations. The pict...

The US dollar steamrolled its peers since early October. After breaking out above its 200-day moving average, it is now fast approaching recent highs. Multiple factors drove this rally, among them are the stronger-than-expected US economic data, weaker data overseas, and Trump’s victory.  ...

Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommended positioning for a US equity portfolio in a Red Sweep scenario.  Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommen...

Although foreseen by our US & Geopolitical strategists, a “Red Sweep” now makes the macro environment more volatile. After convening for our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting, we offer three main takeaways.  First, 2024 is not 2016. To begin with, a Trump victory is less of a surprise....

The October global manufacturing PMI printed at 49.4, up from 48.7 in September but still in contractionary territory. While output stabilized at 50.1, new orders (48.8) and new export orders (48.3) remain in contraction, as is the case for the new orders-to-inventories spread. This rebound is ...

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the government unrolls stimulus measures. This Caixin rebound is not that turnin...

Job openings missed expectations at 7.44 million in September, a mild slowdown from August. The details of the JOLTS report were also negative, except for hirings which continue their June rebound. Meanwhile, consumer confidence for October data beat expectations. The Conference Board’s labor differ...

Elevated US equities valuations and their impact on returns are a hot topic right now. Valuations are not a tactical or cyclical timing tool, but they help predict long-term returns. Our Global Asset Allocation Strategy team publishes their multi-asset 10-to-15 years return assumptions annually, and...

The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several maturities of the loan prime rate and the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate.Our China Investment s...

Preliminary estimates suggest that activity continued to slow across DM economies in September.Manufacturing PMIs contracted at a faster pace in the US, Eurozone, Germany, France and Australia, and grew at a slower pace in the UK. Services PMIs continued to expand in most regions, though the pace of...