Global Fixed Income Outlook

July’s CPI reading was low enough to keep the Fed on hold for now, but near-term upside inflation risks remain.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2026.

Rising term premium is often read as a fiscal warning sign. We show the real driver is monetary policy uncertainty, and what the implications are for global term premia going forward.

Despite today’s hold, the bar for a rate hike in September remains low and contingent on the next two core CPI reports.

Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to…