Emerging Markets Outlook
Identify global trends and domestic fundamentals that are shaping emerging market economies, uncovering underlying risks and market opportunities.
What We Got Right And What We Got Wrong
We review the track record of our broader investment strategy and individual calls. We also use this opportunity to close several positions that have become stale.
India: Time To Upgrade, Public And Private Markets
BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, bu…
Will Bessenomics Avert A Stock-to-Bond Collision?
If bond yields rise due to widening bond term premiums or escalating inflation expectations, Bessenomics is unlikely to avert a stock-bond collision. Buy back gold mining stocks.
Brazil: Off Course
We are downgrading Brazilian equities from neutral to underweight and maintaining our underweights in Brazil's domestic bonds and sovereign credit within their respective EM portfolios. Go long Brazil…
China And EM Profitability: A Floor, Not A Launch Pad
Outside semiconductor stocks, EM/China profitability has been well below both their US peers and the levels that prevailed during the EM structural bull market in the 2000s. Over a 3- to 5-year horizo…
What Really Ails China
China does not produce too much. It spends too little. The only viable way for China to reduce investment without raising unemployment is by lowering national savings. Doing so is likely to be politic…
