China Macro & Investment Outlook
Understand China’s policy, growth, and structural shifts, and the implications for markets and investors globally.
China’s Investment Downshift: What's Next?
China’s investment has hit cyclical and structural limits. Mounting economic pressures will likely push Beijing toward a more aggressive, consumer-focused reflationary stance over the next one to two…
China’s Manufacturing Edge: Built To Last?
China’s manufacturing edge should endure in the next few years. AI will challenge the country’s advantage in some industries, but geopolitics and weakening productive investment pose greater threats t…
China’s Current Account Surplus: The $1 Trillion Question
In this report, we highlight notable developments on both sides of China’s BoP: a widening external surplus on the current account side, and shifts in how that surplus is recycled abroad through BoP f…
China And EM Profitability: A Floor, Not A Launch Pad
Outside semiconductor stocks, EM/China profitability has been well below both their US peers and the levels that prevailed during the EM structural bull market in the 2000s. Over a 3- to 5-year horizo…
What Really Ails China
China does not produce too much. It spends too little. The only viable way for China to reduce investment without raising unemployment is by lowering national savings. Doing so is likely to be politic…
China H2 Outlook, Fiscal Support, And The “Kimi Moment”
China's economy is slowing, but policymakers are unlikely to launch broad-based stimulus in H2. Meanwhile, the emergence of China's "Kimi moment" underscores Beijing's commitment to technological upgr…
