Policy
Energy security is a focus of many governments, especially since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One producer that is benefitting from diversification away from Russian oil and gas is Norway. This is buffeting the trade account and will provide…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, although the next recession is likely to be mild-to-moderate, the ensuing financial avalanche will be more severe. Valuations are highly stretched and hopes that today’s tech leaders will…
The first two regional fed manufacturing surveys for February delivered strong upside surprises. The New York Fed’s Empire Index surged from -43.7 to -2.4, unwinding its January slump. Similarly, the Philly Fed current activity index jumped by 15.8 points to…
The UK inflation release for January came in slightly softer than anticipated. Both headline and core CPI were unchanged on year-over-year basis at 4.0% and 5.1%, respectively – below expectations of slight accelerations. The 0.6% m/m decline in the headline…
In a recent Insight we looked at the performance of equities following the start of monetary easing cycles. Specifically, we looked at the historical performance of US cyclical sectors versus defensive sectors at various points in time after the Fed’s first…
Prices of agricultural commodities have come under intensified downward pressure this year. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices have fallen by 8.6%, 8.3%, and 4.9% respectively so far this year. Multiple factors are behind the selloff. First, ag prices typically…
Our Valentine’s Day report is about two love stories: the infatuation with US tech and China’s infatuation with housing. We describe how these love stories will end, and why Europe could be the winner.
The US CPI report for January showed inflation did not cool as much as anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.23% to 0.31% on a month-over-month basis, higher than anticipations of 0.2% m/m. It fell from 3.4% to 3.1% on a year-over-year basis,…