Financial Markets

The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher unemployment. Or, not cut rates early and go the final mile to 2 percent price inflation, at the risk of higher unemployment. We discuss which way the Fed is likely to tilt, and the investment implications. Plus: China is oversold while Japan is overbought.

This report presents the main ways to invest in the Nuclear Renaissance; from exposure to physical uranium to equity plays alongside or outside the nuclear fuel cycle.

The odds of a “Minsky Moment” for the Chinese banking sector are low. They, however, will continue facing cyclical and structural headwinds, including a dismal asset quality and profit outlook. Bank stocks remain a value trap. Absolute-return investors should sell rebounds in Chinese bank stocks.

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.