Equities

Special Report

Executive Summary Turkey is staring into an abyss: economic crisis that will morph into political crisis in the June 2023 election cycle. President Erdoğan will pursue populist economic policies and foreign policy adventurism to try to stay in power, leading to negative surprises and “black swan” risks over the coming 9-12 months. While Erdoğan and the ruling party are likely to be defeated in elections, which is good news, investors should not try to front-run the election given high uncertainty. Neither Turkey’s economy and domestic politics nor the global economy and geopolitics warrant a bullish view on Turkish assets. GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGY  Recommendation (TACTICAL) Initiation Date Return LONG JPY/TRY 2022-09-23     Erdoğan’s Net Negative Job Approval Bottom Line: The Lira will depreciate further versus the dollar. Both Turkish stocks and local currency bonds merit an underweight stance in an EM basket. EM sovereign credit investors, however, should be neutral on Turkish sovereign credit relative to the EM sovereign credit benchmark. Feature Turkey – now technically Türkiye – is teetering on the verge of a national meltdown. The inflation rate is the fastest in G20 countries, both because of a domestic wage-price spiral and soaring global food and fuel prices. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have been in power since 2002, making them highly vulnerable to demands for change in the general election slated for June 18, 2023. Yet Erdoğan is a strongman who won a popular vote to revise the constitution in 2017 and increase his personal power over institutions. His populist Islamist movement is starkly at odds with the country’s traditional elite, including the secular military establishment. Given the poor state of the economy, Erdoğan will likely lose the 2023 election but he could refuse to leave office … or he could win the election and be ousted in a coup d'état, as happened in Turkey in 1960, 1971, and 1980.1 Meanwhile Turkey is beset by foreign dangers – including war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East. Erdoğan will try to use foreign policy to bolster his popular standing. Turkey has inserted itself in various regional conflicts and could instigate conflicts of its own. While global investors are eager to buy steeply discounted Turkish financial assets ahead of what could be a monumental change in national policy in 2023, the country is extremely unstable. It is a source of “black swan” risks. The best bet is to remain underweight Turkish assets unless and until a pro-market election outcome shakes off the two-decade trend toward economic ruin. Turkish Grand Strategy Turkey is permanently at a crossroads. The land-bridge between Europe and Asia, it is secular and cosmopolitan but also Islamist and traditional. Its past consists of the greatness of empires – Byzantine, Ottoman – while its present consists of a frustrating search for new opportunities in a chaotic regional context. The core of the country consists of the disjointed coastal plains around the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits and the Sea of Marmara, where Istanbul is located. The Byzantine and Ottoman empires were seated on this strategic location at the juncture of the world’s east-west trade. To secure this area, the Turks needed to control the larger Anatolian peninsula – Asia Minor – to prevent roving Eurasian powers from invading, just as they themselves had originally invaded from Central Asia. During times of greatness the Turks could also expand their empire to control the Balkan peninsula and Danube river valley up to Vienna, Crimea and the Black Sea coasts, and the eastern Mediterranean island approaches. During the Ottoman empire’s golden days Turkish power extended all the way into North Africa, Mesopotamia, the Nile river valley, and Mecca and Medina. The empire – and the Islamic Ottoman Caliphate – collapsed in 1924 after centuries of erosion and the catastrophes of World War I. Subsequently Turkey emerged as a secular republic. It adapted to the post-WWII world order by allying with the United States and NATO, in conflict with the Soviet Union which encircled the Turks on all sides. The Russians are longstanding rivals of Turkey, notably in the Black Sea and Crimea, and Stalin wanted to get his hands on the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits. Hence alliance with the US and NATO fulfilled one of the primary demands of Turkish grand strategy: a navy that could defend the straits and Turkish interests in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean. The collapse of the Soviet Union seemed to usher in an era of opportunity for Turkey. Turkey benefited from democratization, globalization, and foreign capital inflows. But then America’s wars and crises, Russia’s resurgence, and Middle Eastern instability created a shatter-belt surrounding Turkey, impinging on its national security. In this context of limited foreign policy options, Turkey’s domestic politics coalesced around Erdoğan, the AKP, political Islam, and investment-driven economic growth. Erdoğan and the AKP represent the Anatolian, religious, and Middle Eastern interests in Turkey, as opposed to the maritime, secular, and Euro-centric interests rooted in Istanbul. This point can be illustrated by observing that the poorer interior regions have grown faster than the national average over the period of AKP rule, whereas the more developed coastal regions have tended to lag (Map 1). Voting patterns from the 2018 general election overlap with these economic outcomes. The AKP has steered investment capital into the interior to fund infrastructure and property construction while currency depreciation, rather than productivity enhancement, has merely maintained the status quo with the manufacturing export sector in the coastal regions (Chart 1). Map 1Turkey’s Anatolian Model And The Struggle With The Coasts Chart 1Turkey's Export Competitiveness Today Turkey faces three distinct obstacles to its geopolitical expansion: Russian aggression: Russia’s resurgence, especially with the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and broader invasion of Ukraine in 2022, threatens Turkey’s interests in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean. Turkey must always deal with Russia carefully but over the past 14 years Russia has become belligerent, forcing Turkey to come to terms with Putin while maintaining the NATO alliance. Today Erdoğan tries to mediate the conflict as it does not want to encourage Russian aggression but also does not want NATO to provoke Russia. For instance, Turkey is willing to condone Finland and Sweden joining NATO but only if the West grants substantial benefits to Turkey itself. Ultimately Turkish ties with Russia are overrated. For both economic reasons and grand strategic reasons outlined above, Turkey will cleave to the West (Chart 2). Chart 2Turkey Still Linked To The West​​​​​ Chart 3Turkish Energy Ties With Russia Western liberal hegemony: The EU and NATO foreclosed any Turkish ambitions in Europe. The EU has consolidated with each new crisis while rejecting Turkish membership. This puts limits on Turkish access to European markets and influence in the Balkans. Turkey has guarded its independence jealously against the West. After the Cold War the US expected Turkey to serve American interests in the Middle East and Eurasia. The EU expected it to serve European interests as an energy transit state and a blockade against Middle Eastern refugees. But Turkish interests were often sidelined while its domestic politics did not allow blind loyalty to the West. This led Turkey to push back against the West and cultivate other options, such as deeper economic ties with Russia and China. Turkish dependency on Russian energy is substantial and Turkey has tried to play a mediating role in Russia’s conflict with NATO (Chart 3). Recently Turkey offered to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a military alliance of Asian powers. However, as with trade, Turkish defense and security ties with the Russo-Chinese bloc are ultimately overrated (Chart 4).  There is room for some cooperation but Turkey is not eager to abandon American military backing in a period in which Russia is threatening to control the Black Sea rim, cut off grain exports arbitrarily, and use tactical nuclear weapons. Chart 4Turkey’s Defense Alliance With The West Middle Eastern instability: The Middle East is a potential area for Turkey to increase influence, especially given the AKP’s embrace of political Islam. Turkey benefits from regional economic development and maintains relations with all players. But the region’s development is halting and Turkey is blocked by competitors. The US toppled Iraq in 2003, which strengthened Iran’s regional clout over the subsequent decades. But Iran is not stable and the US has not prevented Iran from achieving nuclear breakout capacity. Turkey cannot abide a nuclear-armed Iran. At the same time, the US continues to support Israel and the Gulf Arab monarchies, which oppose Turkey’s combination of Islam and democratic populism. Russia propped up Syria’s regime in league with Iran, which threatens Turkey’s border integrity. Developments in Syria, Iraq, and Iran have all complicated Turkey’s management of Kurdish militancy and separatism. Kurds make up nearly 20% of Turkey’s population and play a central role in the country’s political divisions. Erdoğan’s Anatolian power base is antagonistic toward the Kurds and regional Kurdish aspirations. China’s strategic rise brings both risks and rewards for Turkey but China is too distant to become the focus of Turkish strategy: China’s dream of reviving the Silk Road across Eurasia harkens back to the glory days of Ottoman power. The Belt and Road Initiative and other investments help to develop Central Asia and the Middle East, enabling Turkey to benefit once again as the middleman in east-west trade (Chart 5). Chart 5Turkey Benefits From East-West Trade But insofar as China’s Eurasian strategy is successful, it could someday impinge on Turkish ambitions, particularly by buttressing Russian and Iranian power. In recent years Erdoğan has experimented with projecting Turkish power in the Middle East (Syria), North Africa (Libya), the Caucasus (Armenia), and the eastern Mediterranean (Cyprus). He cannot project power effectively because of the obstacles outlined above. But he can manipulate domestic and foreign security issues to try to prolong his hold on power. Bottom Line: Boxed in by Russian aggression, western liberal hegemony, and Middle Eastern instability, Turkey cannot achieve its geopolitical ambitions and has concentrated on internal development over the past two decades. However, the country retains some imperial ambitions and these periodically flare up in unpredictable ways as the modern Turkish state attempts to fend off the chaotic forces that loom in the Black Sea, Middle East, North Africa, and Caucasus. The Erdoğan regime is focused on consolidating Anatolian control of Turkey and projecting military power abroad so that the military does not become a political problem for his faction at home. Erdoğan’s Domestic Predicament President Erdoğan has stayed in power for 20 years under the conditions outlined above but he faces a critical election by June 18, 2023 that could see him thrown from power. The result will be extreme political turbulence over the coming nine months until the leadership of the country is settled by hook or by crook. Erdoğan has pursued a strongman or authoritarian leadership style, especially since domestic opposition emerged in the wake of the Great Recession. By firing three central bankers, he has pressured the central bank into running an ultra-dovish monetary policy, producing a 12% inflation rate prior to the Covid-19 pandemic and an 80% inflation rate today. He has also embraced populist fiscal handouts and foreign policy adventurism. Taken together his policies have eroded the country’s political as well as economic stability. From the last general election in 2018 to the latest data in 2022: Real household disposable income  growth has fallen from -7.4% to -18.7% (Chart 6). Chart 6Real Incomes Falling​​​​​​ Chart 7Turkish Activity Slows Ahead Of Election​​​​​ The manufacturing PMI has fallen from 49.0 to 47.4 (Chart 7). Consumer confidence has fallen from 92.1 to 72.2 (Chart 8). Chart 8Consumer Confidence: Not Better Off Than At Last Election​​​​​​ Chart 9Erdoğan’s Net Negative Job Approval​​​​​​ Bad economic news is finally altering public opinion, with polls now shifting against the president and incumbent party: Since the pandemic erupted, Erdoğan’s approval rating has fallen from a peak of 57% to 40% today. Disapproval has Erdoğan’s risen to 54%, leaving him a net negative job approval (Chart 9). Bear in mind that Erdoğan won the election with 52.6% of the vote in 2018, only slightly better than the 51.8% he received in 2014 and well below the 80% that his AKP predecessor received in 2007. Meanwhile the AKP, which never performs as well as Erdoğan himself, has fallen from a 45% support rate to 30% today in parliamentary polls, dead even with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (Chart 10). The AKP won 42.6% of the vote in 2018, down from 49.5% in the second election of 2015, 49.8% in 2011, and 46.6% in 2007. Chart 10Justice And Development Party Neck And Neck With Republican Opposition The gap between Erdoğan and his Republican rivals has narrowed sharply since the global food and fuel price spike began to bite in late 2021 (Chart 11). Chart 11Erdoğan Faces Tough Re-Election Race However, the 2023 election is not straightforward. There are several caveats to the clear anti-incumbent tendency of economic and political data: Soft Economic Landing? The election takes place in nine months, enough time for surprises to salvage Erdoğan’s presidential campaign, given his and his party’s heavily entrenched rule. For example, it is possible – not probable – that Russia will resume energy exports, enabling Europe to recover, and that central banks will achieve a “soft landing” for the global economy. Turkey’s economy would bounce just in time to help the incumbent party. This is not what we expect (see below) but it could happen. Foreign Policy Victories? Erdoğan could achieve some foreign policy victories. He has negotiated a tenuous deal with Russia and Ukraine, along with the UN, to enable grain exports out of Odessa. He could build on this process to negotiate a broader ceasefire in Ukraine. He could also win major concessions from the US and NATO to secure Finnish and Swedish membership in that bloc. If he did he would come off looking like a grand statesman and might just buy another term in office. Unfortunately what is more likely is that Erdoğan will pursue an aggressive foreign policy in an attempt to distract voters from their bread-and-butter woes, only to destabilize Turkey and the region further. Stolen Election? Erdoğan revised the constitution in 2017 – winning 51.4% of the votes in a popular referendum – to give the presidency substantial new powers across the political system. Using these powers he could manipulate the election to produce a favorable outcome or even cling to power despite unfavorable election results. He does not face nearly as powerful and motivated of a liberal establishment as President Trump faced in 2020 or as Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces in 2022. As noted Erdoğan has a contentious relationship with the Turkish military, so while investors cannot rule out a stolen election, they also cannot rule out a military coup in reaction to an attempted stolen election. Thus the election could produce roughly four outcomes, which we rank below from best to worst in terms of their favorability for global investors: 1.  Best Case: Decisive Opposition Victory – 25% Odds – A resounding electoral defeat for the AKP would reverse its unorthodox economic policies in the short term and serve as a lasting warning to future politicians that populism and economic mismanagement lead to political ruin. This outcome would also provide the political capital and parliamentary strength necessary to impose tough reforms and restore a semblance of macroeconomic stability. 2.  Good Case: Narrow AKP Defeat – 50% Odds – A narrow or contested election would produce a weak new government that would at least put a stop to the most inflationary AKP policies. It would improve global investor sentiment around Turkey’s eventual ability to stabilize its economy. The new government would lack the ability to push through structural reforms but it could at least straighten out the affairs of the central bank so as to ensure a cycle of monetary policy tightening, which would stabilize the currency. 3.  Bad Case: Narrow AKP Victory – 15% Odds – A narrow victory would force the AKP to compromise with opposition parties in parliament and pacify social unrest. Foreign adventurism would continue but harmful domestic policies would face obstructionism. 4.  Worst Case: Decisive AKP Victory – 10% Odds – A resounding victory for the ruling party would vindicate Erdoğan and his policies despite their negative economic results, driving Turkey further down the path of authoritarianism, populism, money printing, currency depreciation, and hyper-inflation. He could also be emboldened in his foreign adventurism. Bottom Line: We expect Erdoğan and the AKP to be defeated and replaced. However, Turkey is in the midst of an economic and political crisis and the next 12 months will bring extreme uncertainty. The election could be indecisive, contested, stolen, or overthrown. The aftermath could be chaotic as well as the lead-up. If the AKP stays in power then investors will abandon Turkey and its economy will suffer a historic shock. Therefore investors should underweight Turkey – at least until the next phase in the economic downturn confirms our forecast that the AKP will fall from power. Macro Outlook: Fade The Equity Rally Chart 12Turkish Stock Rally Will Fade Soon; Stay Underweight This Market Versus EM The Turkish economy is beset by hyper-inflation. Headline consumer prices are rising at upwards of 80% and core inflation is 65%. Yet Turkish government 10-year bond yields are low and falling: they are down to 11% currently, from a high of 24% at the beginning of the year. Turkish stocks have also outperformed their Emerging Markets counterparts this year in common currency terms even though the lira has been the worst performing EM currency (Chart 12). So, what’s going on in this market? The answer is hidden in the slew of unorthodox policies adopted by the authorities. These measures caused massive distortions in both the economy and the markets. Specifically, late last year, despite very high inflation, the central bank began to cut policy rates encouraging massive loan expansion. As a result, both local currency loans and money supply surged. Which, in turn, completely unhinged inflation (Chart 13). As inflation rose, so did government bond yields. In a bid to keep government borrowing costs low, policymakers changed several bank regulations to force commercial banks to buy government bonds.2  The upshot was that the bond yields stopped tracking inflation and instead began to fall even as inflation skyrocketed. The rampant inflation meant Turkish non-financial firms’ nominal sales skyrocketed. Indeed, sales of all MSCI Turkey non-financials companies have risen by 40% in US dollar terms and 200% in local currency (Chart 14). Chart 13Massive Bank Credit And Money Growth Completely Unhinged The Inflation This was at a time when policy rates were being cut. The policy rate has fallen to 12% today from 19% a year earlier. Firms’ local currency real borrowing costs have fallen deeply into negative territory (Chart 15). It helped reduce firms’ costs significantly. Chart 14Surging Sales Amid Deeply Negative Real Borrowing Costs Boosted Firms' Profits​​​​​ Chart 15Policy Rates Are Being Cut Even As The Inflation Reigns Havoc​​​​​ Chart 16Wage Costs Have Risen Too, But Not As Much As Inflation​​​​​ Meanwhile, even though wage growth accelerated, it still fell short of inflation, and therefore of nominal sales of the firms (Chart 16). Firms’ wage costs did not rise as much as their prices. All this boosted non-financial firms’ margins. Total profits have risen by 35% in US dollar terms from a year earlier (200% in lira terms). ​​​​​​​ Chart 17The Deluge Of Money Has Led All Kinds Of Asset Prices To Skyrocket ​​​​​​​ On their part, listed financials’ profits have surged by 50% in USD terms and 220% in local currency terms. They benefited both from surging interest income due to rapid loan growth and from massive capital gains on their holding of government securities (see Chart 14 above). All this is reflected in Turkish companies’ earnings per share as well. The spike in EPS has propped up Turkish stocks for past few months. Over the past year, not only have corporate profits and share prices surged, but also house prices have skyrocketed by 170% in local currency terms and 30% in USD terms (Chart 17). In sum, the abnormally low nominal and deeply negative real borrowing costs have produced a money/credit deluge, which has generated a massive inflationary outbreak and has inflated revenues/profits as well as various asset prices. The Lira To Depreciate Further This macro setting is a recipe for a major currency sell-off.  First, Europe – the destination of 90% of Turkish exports – will likely slide into recession over the coming year (Chart 18).  Chart 18A Slowing Europe Will Materially Dent Turkish Growth Too A fall in exports will widen Turkey’s current account deficit. Notably, imports will not fall much since the authorities are pursuing easy money policy. Second, the lack of credible macro policies as well as political crisis will assure that foreign capital escapes Turkey. Turkey will find the current account deficit nearly impossible to finance. Third, the country’s net foreign reserves, after adjusting for the central bank’s foreign currency borrowings and commercial banks’ deposits with the central bank, stand at minus 30 billion dollars. In other words, the central bank now has large net US dollar liabilities. As such, it has little wherewithal to defend the currency. There are very high odds that the lira depreciation will accelerate in the months ahead. Fourth, the slew of unorthodox measures taken by the Turkish authorities will encourage banks to buy more government local currency bonds to suppress the government’s borrowing costs. When commercial banks buy government securities from non-banks, they create money “out of thin air.” Hence, the ongoing money supply deluge will continue. This is bearish for the currency. Notably, the economy will likely enter into recession next year – and yet core inflation will stay very high (30% and above). Recent unorthodox bank regulations are meant to encourage a certain kind of lending – loans to farmers, exporters, and small and medium-sized businesses – while discouraging other kinds. Consequently, the overall loan growth will likely slow in nominal terms. There are already signs that credit is decelerating on the margin (Chart 19). Given the very high inflation, slower credit growth will likely lead to a liquidity crunch for many businesses – forcing them to curtail their activity.  Chart 19Bank Credit Will Decelerate Due To Many Unorthodox Bank Regulations​​​​​​ Chart 20Bank Loans Are Already Contracting in Real Terms: Not a Good Omen For Real GDP​​​​​​ Indeed, in real terms (deflated by core CPI), local currency loan growth has already slipped into negative territory. This is a bad omen for the overall economy: contracting real loan growth is a harbinger of recession (Chart 20). In short, Turkey is looking into an abyss: a recession amid high inflation (i.e., stagflation) as well as a brewing political crisis (with Erdoğan likely doubling down on unorthodox and populist policies). All this point to another period of a large currency depreciation. While the country will likely change direction to avoid the abyss, investors should wait to allocate capital until after the change in direction is confirmed.    Investment Takeaways The Turkish lira will fall much more vis-à-vis the US dollar in the year ahead. Both Turkish stocks and local currency bonds merit an underweight stance in an EM basket. EM sovereign credit investors, however, should be neutral on Turkish sovereign credit relative to the EM sovereign credit benchmark. Turkey is involved in an economic crisis that will devolve into a political crisis over the election cycle. While Erdoğan and the AKP are likely to fall from power as things stand today, they are heavily entrenched and will be difficult to remove, creating large risks of an indecisive or contested election in 2023 that will increase rather than decrease policy uncertainty and the political risk premium in Turkish assets. As a strongman leader Erdoğan has consolidated political power in his own hands, so there is no one to take the blame for the country’s economic mismanagement – other than foreigners. Hence there is a distinct risk that his foreign policy adventurism will escalate between now and next year, resulting in significant military conflicts or saber-rattling. These will shake out western investors who try to speculate on the likelihood that the election or the military will oust Erdoğan and produce sounder national and economic policies. That outcome is indeed likely but Erdoğan is not going without a fight. Our Geopolitical Strategy also recommends tactically shorting the lira versus the Japanese yen in light of global slowdown, extreme geopolitical risk, and the Bank of Japan’s desire to prevent the yen from falling too far.   Matt Gertken Chief Geopolitical Strategist mattg@bcaresearch.com Rajeeb Pramanik Senior EM Strategist rajeeb.pramanik@bcaresearch.com Andrija Vesic Consulting Editor Footnotes 1      Sinan Ekim and Kemal Kirişci, “The Turkish constitutional referendum, explained,” Brookings Institution, April 13, 2017, brookings.edu. 2     The central bank replaced an existing 20% reserve requirement ratios for credits with a higher 30% treasury bond collateral requirement. Lenders will have to cut interest rates on commercial loans (except for loans to farmers, exporters, and SMEs). Otherwise, banks will have to maintain additional securities. Strategic Themes Open Tactical Positions (0-6 Months) Open Cyclical Recommendations (6-18 Months) Regional Geopolitical Risk Matrix

Special Report

Listen to a short summary of this report     Executive Summary Sales & Profit Margins: The Two Propellers That Powered The Post-GFC US Rally US equity markets underperformed the global benchmark by 10% over 2000-08. Since then, the US has outperformed the global benchmark by about 170%. So, what has driven the US’ chartbusting performance in the post-GFC period? If we break down the US’ price performance into three parts – namely price-to-earnings ratio, net profit margins, and sales – then it becomes clear that growth in the latter two elements played a key role in driving US outperformance in the post-GFC era. Can the US’ outperformance relative to global markets persist going forward? It appears unlikely that the US’ high profit margins can sustain these levels of growth going forward. Distinct from the mean reversion argument, the US’ high profit margins are unusually concentrated amongst a fistful of firms.  US firms may also find it challenging to maintain high sales growth as US GDP growth slows and given that America’s antitrust philosophy may soon undergo a once-in-a-generation change. Finally, it is worth noting that ‘sector composition’ effects played a significant role in driving US outperformance over 2008-22. Given that we expect outperforming sectors like Tech to become underperformers, this effect could become weaker going forward, thereby subverting another source of the US’ outperformance.   Bottom Line: Forecasting is a tenuous science but given that the two prime propellers of the US’ performance engine are likely to confront headwinds going forward, investors should consider reducing allocations to US equities over a longer term, strategic horizon.   Dear Client,  I am meeting clients in Asia this week while also working on our Fourth Quarter Strategy Outlook, which will be published next week, followed by my webcast the week after. In lieu of our regular report this week, you are receiving a Special Report from my colleague, Ritika Mankar, discussing the sources of US equity outperformance over the past 14 years and the likely path ahead. Best Regards,  Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist US Stock Market Dominance – It Wasn’t Always This Way Let us assume that you could travel back in time, and today was December 31, 2008. On this day you know that US and Japanese equity markets have underperformed the global benchmark (Chart 1). You also know that Europe (i.e., EU-27) has done marginally better than the US, while Emerging Markets (EM) have been the star outperformer. Let us further assume that by close of play today you have to deploy US$10bn across these four equity markets (across the US, Europe, Japan, and EM).  As if the task of taking this decision on the last day of this historic year was not enough, let us assume that the funds you invest must be locked in until the fall of 2022. Finally, let us add one more condition to this task – let us suppose that you have no idea how markets would perform over the 2008-22 period, but you have perfect foresight about how the nominal GDP of these four regions would look like in 2022. Specifically, you know that EM GDP will have a terrific run between 2008 to 2022, US GDP will increase but by a far less impressive degree, European GDP will grow only slightly, and Japan’s GDP would be lesser in 2022 than it was in 2008 (Chart 2).  Chart 1US Equities Underperformed The Global Benchmark By 10% Over 2000-08 Chart 2EM GDP Has More Than Doubled Since The GFC Chart 3US Equities Outperformed The Global Benchmark By About 170% Over 2008-22YTD If you were to take an investment decision based only this information, what is certain is that the fund you manage would underperform by a painful degree. This is because we now know that even though US markets had poor momentum in 2008, and the US’ GDP expansion paled relative to EM, US equity markets outperformed global markets by a wide margin since 2008 (Chart 3). On the other hand, despite positive momentum and high GDP growth, EM emerged as a distant second-best performer. Japan miraculously made it to third place despite a contraction in nominal GDP, and finally Europe ended up being the worst performer. If market momentum and GDP growth cannot explain these market movements, then what drove the US' outstanding performance in the post-GFC period? In this Special Report, we delve into answering this question in detail. The purpose of peeling the onion of the US' performance is simple – we hope to extract the insights that investors need to construct alpha-generating portfolios, in a world where forward time travel is not a possibility (yet). The US’ Performance Has Been Powered More By Earnings, Less By Valuations The two basic building blocks of any equity index are its earnings and its price-to-earnings ratio. The former captures the fundamentals backing an index, while the latter quantifies the valuation element. Breaking down the US’ performance into these two parts shows that earnings have been the prime factor that have propelled the rise of US equity markets in the post-GFC era (Chart 4). That earnings have been an important driver of the US’ outperformance becomes even more apparent when US earnings are compared to that of other major markets. For instance, the steep expansion in US earnings contrasts with the situation across the Atlantic. In Europe, earnings have trended lower relative to the global benchmark since 2008 and an increase in relative valuations has helped lend a floor to the index (Chart 5). The earnings report card for Japan and EM, on the other hand, have been surprisingly similar as earnings failed to rise meaningfully in both these geographies in the post-GFC period (Chart 6 and 7). Chart 4Earnings Have Played A Key Role In Propelling The Post-GFC US Rally Chart 5European Equities Supported More By Valuation Multiples Chart 6Earnings Growth Has Been Unimpressive In Japan Too Chart 7Earnings Have Trended Lower In EM Since 2008 In summary, the US' price-to-earnings ratio has had a meaningful role in driving US outperformance in the post-GFC period (Chart 8), but earnings expansion has played an outsized role (Chart 9). Chart 8Relative Valuation Multiples Have Played A Key Role In Supporting European Markets Chart 9Earnings Expansion In The US Has Been Phenomenal In fact, the growth in earnings in the US in the post-GFC era has been so noteworthy that if US equity market prices were to be broken down into its two building blocks i.e., earnings and price-to-earnings ratio, then the lion’s share of US equity market prices today would be attributed to its earnings (Chart 10). Expectedly, this contrasts with the situation in Europe where equity market prices have managed to stay afloat owing to a re-rating in its price-to-earnings ratio (Chart 11). These attribution analysis numbers are not meant to be taken literally, but rather, reflect the relative role played by earnings and price-to-earnings ratios in supporting the prices of regional indices. Chart 10US Equities: Supported More By Earnings Chart 11EU Equities: More Reliant On Multiples The Unsung Hero Behind The US’ Outperformance - Record Sales Expansion The index of a region can also be envisaged as the product of three elements, namely: (1) its price-to-earnings ratio; (2) its net profit margins; and (3) its sales. In other words: Price = (Price / Earnings) x (Earnings / Sales) x (Sales) While the US' healthy earnings tend to attract disproportionate investor attention, this formulation shows how a surge in US sales was the bigger driver of US outperformance (Chart 12). US profit margins experienced a sharp surge relative to global profit margins over the 2008-12 period, but then this parameter flatlined. US sales, on the other hand, have managed to register a steady march upwards over the entirety of the post-GFC period. The growth in sales of listed American corporations has in fact been so remarkable that a grand total of ten American firms now have annual sales of over $200 billion – which marks an all-time high for the US (Chart 13). Chart 12Post-GFC US Rally Powered By Record Sales Expansion Chart 13The US Is Home To Ten Firms With Revenues Of +$200bn Furthermore, the US’ lead on sales today is meaningful not only by its own historical standards, but by cross-country standards too. The rise in US sales has meant that the US is now home to half of the twenty largest listed corporations globally (Table 1). Conversely, Europe and Japan, despite being the third and fourth largest economies of the world, respectively, together account for only three names on this list. Notably however, Emerging Markets have managed to punch above their weight and are home to six of the top twenty firms by sales globally. Table 1The US Today Dominates The Global List Of Top 20 Firms By Revenue The steep rise in America’s sales in the post-GFC world is also unique because no other major market has experienced such a clear upward move in sales as the US has. Europe and Japan in fact saw their sales-per-share trend downwards in the post-GFC period (Chart 14 and Chart 15). Emerging markets  were the only other major global market where sales-per-share managed to stay steady relative to the global benchmark (Chart 16). Chart 14Europe’s Sales Have Trended Lower Post-GFC Chart 15Japan’s Sales Also Trended Lower Post-GFC Finally, thanks to the high growth in US sales, the contribution of sales to US equity prices is far higher than the contribution of its net profit margins or its price-to-earnings ratio (Chart 17). This once again is in sharp contrast to a market like Europe, where only a smidgeon of the European equity prices pie can be attributed to its sales. Chart 16EM Sales Have Expanded Marginally Post-2008 Chart 17The Main Engine That Powers US Markets Is ‘Sales’ Chart 18US Profit Margins Have Also Been Expanding Steadily Post-GFC Distinct from the role played by growing sales, the US’ stellar post-GFC performance has also been powered by growing profit margins. It is notable that the US has experienced an unusually strong upward movement in its profit margins in the post-GFC period (Chart 18). Japan is the only other region which has seen its profit margins expand post-GFC, with both Europe and EM having experienced a fall in profit margins from the levels seen in 2008. A Quick Note On Dividends: The US Lags On Dividend Yields But Leads On Buybacks Thus far we have focused on the returns generated by the US market relative to the world and the factors that drove US outperformance since the GFC. If one were to focus on the dividend yield component, then it is notable that the US lags its peers on this front. Post-GFC, the first major cresting of dividend yields globally took place in 2009-10. Then the next major move down in yields took place in 2020 (Chart 19). While globally, yields have now recovered from this last dip, the US finds itself lagging on this metric which matters for pension funds that rely on annuities (Chart 20). Not only have dividend yields in the US almost halved since the GFC, but the gap between dividend yields offered by the US and other markets has widened over the last few years. Europe however has managed to stay the undisputed leader when it comes to dividend yields through most of the 21st century. Chart 19Global Dividend Yields Have Recovered From The Post-2020 Fall Chart 20US Lags Global Markets On Dividend Yields Chart 21Pace Of Buybacks In The US Has Been Meaningful Notably, however, while the US lags its peers on dividend yields, it leads when it comes to buybacks. The latter is evident from the fact that proxy measures of shares outstanding have trended lower in the US in the post-GFC period, as compared to the rest of the world (Chart 21). Finally, it is important to note that both the growth in dividends-per-share as well as the absolute level of dividends in the US has been high. This parameter has increased by 2.4 times since 2008 and US dividends in absolute terms are nearly 5 times that of Europe’s dividends today. The only reason why dividend yields have stayed low despite this is because US equity prices have had a stellar run in the post-GFC period.     Can This Extent Of US Outperformance Persist? Having delved into the drivers of the US’ performance, we now know that a record expansion in sales and net profit margins have driven its outstanding performance in the post-GFC era. This in turn means that the probability of the US continuing to outperform over the next few years will be closely linked to its ability to maintain a lead on these two parameters. So how is the US positioned with respect to both these factors?   The US’ High Profit Margins Appear Unsustainable, For A Wide Range Of Reasons We have established the fact that expanding profit margins have been a supporting driver of the US’ outperformance in the post-GFC period. Now, the consensus view is that US profit margins are extraordinarily high and that they will eventually come down to earth. The logic for this argument is often grounded in mean reversion. We have also previously highlighted that most of the increase in US profit margins has occurred due to rising margins within the tech sector and the accompanying increase in the market cap weight of tech within benchmark indices. Chart 22US High Profit Margins Are Concentrated Amongst Top Firms Aside from these reasons, two more factors could lead to the compression of US profit margins over the next few years. Firstly, it is worth noting that the US' high profit margins are unusually concentrated amongst a handful of firms. While the US as a market is characterized by high margins at the headline level, profit margins of companies below the top tier are notably lower than that of the top tier (Chart 22). If profit margins were uniformly high across the US listed space and the divergence was low, then the probability of sustaining elevated margins would have been higher. But given that the US uniquely suffers from a high profit margin concentration problem, the probability of the sustainability of US high profit margins appears lower. Secondly, history suggests that in the globalized world that we live in, any region’s profit margins fail to persist above the global average beyond a maximum of 15 years (Table 2). This makes sense and is in line with economic theory which suggests that when profitability in a particular market is excessive, then new firms will enter this space, increase competition, and thereby exert downward pressure on the incumbents’ profit margins. Table 2Regional Profit Margins Seldom Persist Above The Global Average Beyond 15 Years Given that US profit margins have now persisted above global levels for almost 13 years, if history were to repeat itself, then it appears highly likely that US profit margins would trend towards the global average over the next 2 years.   US Sales Growth: A Peak Appears Nigh We now know that the rapid sales expansion experienced by US firms has been the prime driver of the US stock market outperformance since the GFC. However, the prognosis for this variable also appears shaky for the US. Chart 23US GDP And Sales Tend To Move In Lockstep The key macro variable which has the tightest theoretical link to the sales generated by the companies in a country is the country’s nominal GDP. Even as companies headquartered in the US end up selling to the global economy, history suggests that the link between the US’ nominal GDP and the sales generated by listed American firms are closely linked (Chart 23). Given that the pace of US nominal GDP growth is set to slow over the next few years (relative to both its past and relative to other major economies), US companies’ sales growth could end up slowing too (Chart 24). Also, given that the US revenue-to-nominal GDP ratio is already elevated, it is likely that even as the US’ nominal GDP keeps growing, the pace of conversion of this GDP into revenues will stay the same or may even diminish over the coming decade.   Chart 24US GDP Growth Is Set To Slow Then from a bottom-up perspective, we are also of the view that the US economy’s ability to spawn mega-sized companies (by sales) may become increasingly compromised over the next decade. This is because a peculiar stagnation is in the works in the middle tier of American firms, which tend to become the mega-sized corporations of tomorrow. Finally, the US' antitrust philosophy is likely to undergo a once-in-a-generation change under the Biden administration. This could mean that America’s mega-scaled firms (which have had a free run up until now) could end-up baiting regulatory attention, restricting their ability to grow sales.   US Price Performance: Strong Sector Effects Are Unlikely To Persist Chart 25Sector Composition Effect: Strongest For The US Lastly, it is worth noting that the price performance of the broad US equity index subverts the role played by “sector composition” in driving the US' outperformance. The fact that returns generated by the US benchmark are higher than the returns generated by a hypothetical US index which weights all sectors equally suggests that “sector composition” effects had a meaningful role in driving US outperformance. In fact, as compared to other major markets, the sector composition effect is the most prominent for the US (Chart 25). Another way of quantifying the role of sector effects is to compare the US’ market cap expansion relative to a global benchmark after removing the market cap of top-performing sectors. Expectedly, US outperformance relative to the global benchmark over the post-GFC period gets substantially reduced if the market cap of the three top-performing sectors (namely Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care) is adjusted for (Chart 26). To complicate matters, the sector composition effect in the US has been unwinding but remains high (Chart 27). Given that we expect outperforming sectors like Tech to turn into underperformers, the sector constitution effect in the US could weaken going forward, thereby subverting another source of US outperformance.  Chart 26Extent Of US Outperformance Weakens Sans Tech, Consumer Discretionary, And Health Care Chart 27Sector Composition Effect In The US Remains High Investment Conclusions The prime drivers of US outperformance relative to the global benchmark in the post-GFC period have been ascendant sales and rising net profit margins. Forecasting is a tenuous science but given that both these propellers of the US equity market engine are set to face headwinds, investors should consider reducing allocations to US equities over a longer term, strategic horizon. Ritika Mankar, CFA Editor/Strategist Ritika.Mankar@bcaresearch.com  

Executive Summary The Chinese Economy Is Facing Deflationary Pressures China’s economy is facing a deflationary threat. Core consumer price inflation is below 1%, and producer (ex-factory) price inflation has decelerated rapidly and will soon deflate. Bank loan growth remains subdued due to the deepening property market slump and lackluster credit demand in the private sector. In view of the reluctance of households and enterprises to spend, invest and hire, the multiplier of stimulus in this cycle will be lower than in previous ones. China’s property market woes continued in August and a turnaround is not likely in the near term. China’s overseas shipments are set to contract in the months ahead. China needs to reduce interest rates and weaken its exchange rate to battle deflationary pressures and reflate the system. Thus, Chinese authorities will not prevent a further depreciation in the yuan versus the US dollar - as long as the decline is orderly and gradual. Bottom Line: The risk-reward profile remains unattractive for Chinese stocks in absolute terms. For global equity portfolios, we recommend a neutral allocation to Chinese onshore stocks and an underweight stance in investable stocks. Escalating deflationary pressures mean that onshore asset allocators should continue to favor government bonds over stocks.     Recovery prospects for China’s economy remain dim. Despite August’s better-than-expected growth in industrial output and retail sales, economic activity in the months ahead will be weighed down by a lingering real estate slump, recurring disruptions linked to Covid and a budding contraction in exports. Related Report  China Investment StrategyThe Party Congress And Beyond As discussed in our previous report, China’s transition from zero Covid tolerance to a managed approach to living with the virus will be a measured but protracted process. The conditions are not yet in place for a pivotal change in the country’s dynamic zero-Covid strategy. Thus, the risk of outbreaks and ensuing lockdowns still constitute a major hurdle for private domestic demand in the near term. China’s exports are set to shrink in the coming months due to a relapse in global demand for consumer goods (ex-autos). Domestic and external headwinds confronted by China underscore that the primary economic risk is deflation. Chinese policymakers need to lower interest rates and allow the currency to depreciate to battle deflationary pressures. Odds are high that the PBoC will cut rates further. However, the efficacy of reflationary efforts is doubtful due to three factors: uncertainty over the dynamic zero-Covid policy and the outlook for Omicron; persistent real estate woes; and the downbeat sentiment among corporates and households. Chart 1Upsides In Chinese Equity Prices Are Capped Without Aggressive Stimulus Therefore, our outlook for China’s business cycle remains a U-shaped recovery with risks skewed to the downside in the next few months.  Consistently, the risk-reward of Chinese stocks remains poor. Their absolute performance is also at risk from a further selloff in US/global equities as discussed in the latest Emerging Markets Strategy report. We continue to recommend a neutral stance on Chinese onshore stocks and underweight allocation for Chinese offshore stocks within a global equity portfolio (Chart 1). Depressed Credit Demand And Low Stimulus Multiplier Demand for credit from China’s private sector remains depressed, reflected by a very muted credit impulse when local government bond issuance is excluded (Chart 2). Critically, banks have been unable to accelerate the pace of lending even after the PBoC cut rates and urged them to boost lending (Chart 3). Chart 2The Credit Impulse Remains Muted Chart 3Subdued Loan Growth Despite Lower Interest Rates The growth rate of medium-to-long-term consumer loans, which are primarily composed of residential mortgages, continues to plunge (Chart 4, top panel). New household loan origination is contracting (Chart 4, bottom panel). Our proprietary measure of marginal propensity to spend for households dropped to an all-time low, mirroring consumers’ downbeat sentiment (Chart 5).  Chart 4Household Loan Demand Is Depressed... Chart 5...And Sentiment Remains in The Doldrums Corporate credit flow improved slightly with medium-to-long-term corporate loan growth ticked up in August (Chart 6). While it is difficult to quantify, it is likely that the recent modest improvement in corporate loan growth was mainly due to state-owned banks’ lending to local government financing vehicles (LGFV) to purchase land. The latter is de-facto bailing out local governments that heavily depend on land sales. Land transfer revenues made up 23% of local government aggregate expenditure in the past 12 months (Chart 7). Chart 6Corporate Loan Growth Slightly Improved In August Chart 7Land Sales Are Critical For Local Government Financing Chart 8Corporates' Investment Sentiment Is Worsening Consistent with poor business sentiment, enterprises’ investment expectation deteriorated in August (Chart 8). Given private-sector’s reluctance to borrow, the multiplier of stimulus will be lower than that in previous cycles. Consequently, China’s policymakers have no choice but to bump up fiscal stimulus and cut interest rates even more. Property Market: No Turnaround In Sight Yet China’s property market woes continued in August with a further weakening in housing market indicators (Chart 9). Home sales tumbled by 25% in August from a year ago. Real estate investment shrinkage deepened and home price deflation accelerated. Property market indicators probably will begin to show a rate-of-change improvement in the coming months due to a more favorable base effect. However, their annual growth rates will remain deeply negative, probably posting a double-digit retrenchment from a year ago. In brief, the level of housing sales will continue withering (Chart 10, top panel). Chart 9Housing Market Activity And Prices Chart 10Shrinking Sales = Less Funding Shrinking home sales mean a scarcity of funding for real estate developers who heavily rely on advance payments from homebuyers to finance their projects (Chart 10, middle and bottom panels). Hence, a contraction in property investment will remain intact for the next three to six months and housing construction activities will stay depressed (Chart 11). Chart 11Less Funding = Reduced Completions And Investments Chart 12Households Are Reluctant To Buy When House Prices Are Falling Interestingly, to revive housing sales, Guangzhou (a southern Chinese metropolis) plans to loosen price controls to allow new house prices to drop up to 20%. Other provinces might follow suit. This would eventually make housing more affordable, but homebuyers might be reluctant to buy until house prices bottom (Chart 12). Therefore, an imminent rebound in home sales is unlikely. Overseas  Shipments Are Set To Shrink China’s export growth, in both value and volume terms, slowed noticeably in August. The global demand for goods continues to dwindle, which does not bode well for Chinese overseas shipments. Imports for processing trade,1 which historically led China’s exports growth by three months, sank in August (Chart 13). In addition, Shanghai’s export container freight index has plummeted sharply (Chart 14). Both signal an impending shrinkage in the country’s exports volume. Chart 13Plummeted Processing Imports Herald A Downtrend In Exports Chart 14A Sign Of Exports Relapse Notably, the country’s exports to the US began to wither in August and this trend will only accelerate in the months ahead. We elaborated on the reasons for the global trade contraction in a previous report. Consistently, the continued underperformance of global cyclical stocks versus defensives, which historically has been a good leading indicator of global manufacturing cycles, points to a worldwide manufacturing downturn (Chart 15). This will be bad news for China, which is the largest manufacturing hub in the world. Deflationary Pressures Will Intensify The Chinese economy is facing a deflationary threat with core consumer inflation below 1% and producer (ex-factory) price inflation falling sharply (Chart 16). Chart 15Global Manufacturing Is Heading Into A Contraction Chart 16The Chinese Economy Is Facing A Risk of Deflation As weaknesses in domestic demand, real estate price and exports deepen, deflationary pressures in the mainland economy will likely intensify. Producer prices will begin deflating in the coming months. Manufactured goods prices have already deflated modestly, which will dampen investment in the industrial sector (Chart 17). Deflationary pressures are set to proliferate given that manufacturing output accounts for one-third of China’s GDP and manufacturing investment accounts for 32% of the nation’s overall fixed-asset investment. Investment in the real estate sector deteriorated severely in August. The downtrend in manufacturing and property investments will cap China’s overall capital spending growth through the end of this year, despite the ongoing rebound in infrastructure investment (Chart 18). Chart 17Manufacturing Prices Are Deflating Chart 18Weakness In Property And Manufacturing Investments Will Cap Overall Capital Spending Chart 19Sluggish Household Consumption Weak income growth and an unwillingness by consumers to spend have taken a heavy toll on retail sales and the service sector since early this year. The growth in goods sales volume edged up in August but remains lackluster and well below pre-pandemic levels (Chart 19). In addition, online retail sales of services continued to shrink (Chart 19, bottom panel). More Downside In The RMB  China needs to reduce its interest rates and weaken its exchange rate to battle deflationary pressures. Therefore, Chinese authorities will not mind more deterioration in the yuan versus the US dollar as long as it is gradual. The PBoC lowered the banks’ foreign exchange (FX) deposit reserve requirement ratio (RRR) from 8% to 6%, effective September 15. However, this will have little impact on altering the current weakening trend of the RMB. The balance of FX deposits at commercial banks was US$910 billion at the end of August. A 2% decrease in the FX deposit reserve ratio will only free about US$18 billion in FX liquidity, which is not large compared with US$80 billion in China’s net portfolio outflows through bond and stock connects so far this year. Capital outflows from China will likely persist for the next few months due to the disappointing economic recovery and widening interest rate differential relative to the US (Chart 20). Moreover, slumping exports will heighten selling pressures on the yuan and increase the government’s tolerance for a weaker currency. The FX settlement rate by banks on behalf of clients has continued to drop, which reflects the reluctance of exporters to sell their foreign currency receipts to banks on the expectation that the RMB will weaken even more (Chart 21).   Chart 20China-US Rate Differentials Indicate RMB Depreciation Chart 21Contracting Exports Will Weigh On The RMB Furthermore, despite a 12% depreciation against the US dollar since this March, the RMB remains strong in trade-weighted terms (Chart 22). Finally, the RMB is modestly cheap, which does not constitute sufficient conditions for the exchange rate reversal, especially when macro fundamentals warrant a weaker currency (Chart 23). In short, we expect that the RMB has another 5% to fall versus the US dollar. Chart 22RMB Is Strong In Trade-Weighted Terms Chart 23The RMB Is Modestly Cheap But Might Undershoot Stay Cautious On Chinese Equities Deflationary pressures confronted by the Chinese economy suggest that onshore asset allocators should continue to favor government bonds over stocks (Chart 24). Chart 24China's Onshore Stock-To-Bond Ratio Will Continue Relapsing Chart 25A-Shares Have Broken Below Their 6-Year Moving Average The onshore CSI 300 stock index had broken through its 6-year moving average technical support, which will become new resistance for the index (Chart 25). The Hang Seng Tech index, which tracks Chinese offshore tech stocks/platform companies, has failed to break above its 200-day moving average (Chart 26). The above tell-tale signs raise the odds of cyclical new lows in these indexes. Within Chinese equities, we continue to recommend overweighting interest rate sensitive sectors, such as consumer staples, utilities and autos (Chart 27). Chart 26Chinese Tech Stocks Still Appear Brittle Chart 27Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors Benefit From Loosening Monetary Conditions Finally, we reiterate our long A-share index / short MSCI Investable stock index recommendation, a position we initiated in March 2021. Qingyun Xu, CFA Associate Editor qingyunx@bcaresearch.com   Table 1China Macro Data Summary Table 2China Financial Market Performance Summary Footnotes 1     Processing trade refers to the business activities of importing raw materials, components and accessories, and then re exporting the finished products after processing or assembly. Strategic Themes Cyclical Recommendations

Special Report

Executive Summary Robotization Is Gaining Pace ​​​​In today’s publication, we will zero in on one of the most exciting areas of technological innovation that also presents substantial long-term investment potential – robotics. The robotics industry is expected to grow steadily both in the US and abroad thanks to a confluence of favorable long-term trends such as deteriorating global demographics, and a shift of manufacturing toward onshoring and customization. Thanks to technological breakthroughs in the areas of AI, machine learning, lidars, and machine vision, robots are becoming more intelligent and dexterous, thus suitable for an increasing list of tasks and applications. Robots are also becoming more affordable, which is a catalyst for ubiquitous adoption. Increased connectivity and broad-based automation and robotization, are ushering in Industrial Revolution 4.0, improving productivity manyfold. Over time, robotics will change our world beyond recognition, improving not only manufacturing and service industries but also our daily lives. Bottom Line: Robotics is an exciting story of technological innovation, which also presents substantial long-term investment potential. And while the US equity market is likely to remain volatile for months to come, the recent correction in robotics stocks presents an attractive entry point for patient investors with longer investment horizons.     Chart 1US Manufacturers Cannot Fill In Vacant Positions, Wages Are Surging Last month we published a report: “Industrials: A Trifecta Of Positives” in which we noted that the US is entering a period of industrial boom prompted by favorable government policy and generous spending, and strong new trends in onshoring and automation (Chart 1). This trifecta of positives helps the sector defy the gravity of the slowing economy.   In this week’s publication, we will zero in on automation and robotization. This is one of the most exciting areas of technological innovation, which presents substantial long-term investment potential. And while the US equity market is likely to remain volatile for months to come, robotics ETFs such as BOTZ, ROBO, IRBO, and ROBT are off some 40%-50% from their recent post-pandemic peaks (Table 1) and present an attractive entry point for patient investors with longer investment horizons. Table 1An Attractive Entry Point for Long-term Investors What Is A Robot? Recent breakthroughs in AI and robotics technology are awe-inspiring and unsettling. The "robot revolution" could be as transformative as previous General Purpose Technologies (GPT), including the steam engine, electricity, and the microchip. GPTs are technologies that radically alter the economy's production process and make a major contribution to living standards over time The most basic definition is "a device that automatically performs complicated and often repetitive tasks". Interestingly, according to the definition of the International Standards Organization (ISO), software (bots, AI, process automation), remotely controlled drones, voice assistants, autonomous cars, ATMs, smart washing machines, etc. are not robots. Broadly speaking, there are three types of robots: Industrial, service, and collaborative (cobots). Industrial robots work on assembly lines in manufacturing, service robots perform necessary as well as potentially harmful tasks for humans, while collaborative robots (or “cobots”) work next to human workers. We will discuss different types of robots in more depth in later sections. Robotics Industry Is Growing Steadily Global Adoption Chart 2Robotization Is Gaining Pace According to the International Federation of Robotics, as of 2020, industrial robot stock has constituted 3 million units and between 2015 and 2020 has been growing at 13% per year. A total of 383,000 units of industrial robots were installed in 2020. Industrial robots reported record preliminary sales in 2021, with 486,800 units shipped globally, a 27% increase from 2020. The pace of installations is forecasted to stay robust well into 2024 (Chart 2). Service robot adoption has also clearly been crossing the chasm: In 2020, nearly 132,000 service robots were installed, a 41% increase over 2019, and 19 million consumer service robots were installed, a 6% increase over 2019. Together, the service robot turnover was approximately $12 billion in 2020. The US Is Lagging But The Pace Is Accelerating Chart 3Industrial Robots Across The Globe The US has been lagging other developed countries in terms of automation and robotization (Chart 3). However, labor shortages brought about by the pandemic appear to have “moved the needle.” According to the Association for Advancing Automation (A3), the number of robots sold in the US in 2021 rose by 27% over 2020 with 49,900 units installed. 2022 is on pace to exceed previous records, with North American companies ordering a record 11,595 robots in Q1, a 28% increase over Q1-2021. Multiple Tailwinds Promote Ubiquitous Robotization The robotics industry is expected to grow steadily both in the US and abroad thanks to a confluence of forces, such as deteriorating global demographics, manufacturing shifts toward onshoring and customization, and technological breakthroughs that make robots more capable and affordable.  Aging Population Leads To Labor Shortages Populations in both developed and emerging markets is aging: More people both in high and upper-middle-income countries will retire in the next decade than will enter the workforce, making labor shortages inevitable. In the US, the problem is particularly acute. Since 2020, labor force participation has declined from 63.4% to 62.4%, most likely due to early retirements, while the unemployment rate stands at a historically low 3.7%. There are two job openings per job seeker, and many businesses report difficulty finding qualified staff. As companies are struggling to fill existing openings, they are increasingly turning towards robots: Replacing labor with automation/robots allows them to produce more and avoid a profit margin squeeze. IFR reports that an increasing number of small- and medium-sized businesses are deploying robots.  Related Report  US Equity StrategyIndustrials: A Trifecta Of Positives Onshoring And Reshoring As we pointed out in the recent report on Industrials, the onset of the pandemic and geopolitical tensions have accelerated the pace of reshoring. Supply chain disruptions have highlighted corporate vulnerabilities and made companies realize that “just-in-case” trumps “just-in-time.” However, companies that bring their businesses back home do realize that finding workers is a challenge, while labor costs are many times higher. Hence, one of the solutions they pursue is automation and robotization.   Mass Customization The “new normal” in many industries is mass customization, i.e., variations for a growing number of products, dubbed a “batch of one.” The shift towards high mix, low volume production raises the importance of manufacturing flexibility and agility – and that is when the industrial robot, capable of working in high to low-volume productions on simple to complex processes, comes to the rescue. The Lower Total Cost Of Ownership Technological advances have made robots both more sophisticated and more affordable. In addition, to a growing supply of low-cost robots, there are also novel pricing models, such as “Robots-as-a-Service” and pay-as-you-use, which support the ubiquitous adoption of robots even by smaller enterprises. Technological Breakthroughs Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), computer vision, radars, and networks have expanded the range of tasks that robots can do. Effectively, new technology gives the robot the ability to see, hear, and pick up objects, acting differently according to the data the robot receives, offering it a certain level of autonomous decision-making. Now that robots can “see” and “hear,”, they are being taught how to “feel,” and some of the recent technological advances are truly mind-boggling. Glasgow University researchers have developed ultra-sensitive electronic skin that learns from sensations it experiences. A robotic hand covered with the new e-skin recoiled from what it recognized as “painful” stimuli. This new technology will allow robots to interact with the world in a whole new way, an invention that can be leveraged in a wide range of applications, from prosthetic limbs to the “internet-of-things”.1 And this is just one of many recent inventions. Virtuous Cycle Of Innovation The Robotics industry is going through a perpetual and ever-accelerating cycle of innovation (Chart 4). Improvements to one domain of robotic applications can be transferred to others, benefitting from “adjacent” technologies. In other words, innovations in vacuum cleaners or transport trucks can be easily applied to other areas of robotics, as despite differences in prices and value-add, all the robotic applications are trying to solve the same problems. Advances in different fields in robotics create opportunities for ever more applications, creating a virtuous cycle. Chart 4Robotics Will Enter Into A Virtuous Cycle Furthermore, robotics is a poster child for Moore’s Law, which refers to the phenomenon whereby transistors on a microchip double every two years, eventually leading to exponential improvements in computing power. Automation and robotics take advantage of these improvements as they are challenged with more complex tasks. We predict the virtuous cycle for robots will span several decades. As the cost of automation drops, better solutions will be developed, resulting in the ‘early retirement’ of dated but otherwise fully functional robotic systems. The following is a brief synopsis of advances in technology and their applications to robotics. Technologies That Help Robots Act Like Humans AI And Machine Learning (ML) AI and ML not only teach robots to perform certain tasks but also makes machines more intelligent by training them to act in different scenarios. To do this, vast amounts of data are consumed. For example, to “teach” a robot to recognize an object and act accordingly, a massive number of images are used to train the computer vision model. Dexterity And Deep Imitation Learning One of the major challenges of roboticists is improving the dexterity of robots and empowering them to manipulate objects gripped by the hand, akin to humans. Some researchers are using machine learning to empower robots to independently identify and work out how to grab objects. Deep Imitation Learning, neural-network-based algorithms, allow the robot to “learn” from humans. For example, in a robotics study led by researchers from the University of Tokyo, the machine learning embedded in the robot practiced a method observed by a human demonstrator. After watching one of the researchers peel a banana periodically for thirteen hours, a robot successfully learned how to peel a banana without crushing the fruit.2 There are also major improvements in hardware, with grippers ranging from pincer-like appendages to human-like hands. Lidar Lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) technology uses sophisticated laser radars that allow robots to navigate their surroundings through object perception, identification, and collision avoidance. Lidar sensors provide information in real-time about the robot’s surroundings such as walls, doors, people, and various objects. While originally expensive, Lidar costs are starting to fall thanks to a more effective chip design and more economical mechanical implementation. Lidars are crucial for advances in industrial automation and warehouse robots. Machine Vision Deep Learning has brought about a groundbreaking advancement in machine vision. One of the early hurdles in machine vision may be described with a simple question: “Am I looking at a large object that’s far away or a tiny object that’s up close?”  The modern approach to answering this question is to use both 3-D cameras and the context. 3-D is simulated by using two or more overlapping cameras, correlating the information on camera movements with changing images from the cameras. Deep Learning algorithms help formulate the context of these changing images.3 Machine vision provides higher quality mapping at a more affordable cost than Lidar, especially when it comes to indoor robotics and automation. Industrial Internet Of Things In Robotics The implementation of the “Industrial Internet of Things” (IIoT) is vital for manufacturing automation and robotics. Its main goal is to create a constant tracking of inputs and outputs, enabling communication along the entire supply chain, passing data between enterprise level and plant floor systems, and improving productivity through the use of big data.  Robots working at different stages of the manufacturing process are interconnected, ensuring flawless production. IIoT technology aims to improve productivity by reducing human-to-human and human-to-computer interactions, reducing costs, and minimizing the probability of mistakes. Similar to smart homes, IIoT factories are smart factories.4 Industrial Revolution 4.0 Early industrial robots performed very specific operations under carefully controlled conditions – an assembly robot that encountered a misaligned component would simply install it that way, resulting in a defective product. However, thanks to improvements in vision systems, computing, AI, and mechanics, the ability of robots to perform increasingly complex tasks that involve some limited decision-making has improved. Increased connectivity, brought about by IIoT, and ubiquitous automation and robotization, are ushering in a new Industrial Revolution, dubbed 4.0. As in previous industrial revolutions, innovation improves productivity manifold. Chart 5Robots Are Proficient In Many Tasks Industrial robots are deployed to carry out a wide variety of tasks (Chart 5). Arc welding, spot welding, assembly, palletizing, material removal, inspection, material handling, and packaging are some of the most popular applications for robots, but the list does not stop with just those. Industrial robots limit the need for human interaction while being able to complete tasks accurately with a high level of repeatability. Proficiency with these many tasks allows robots to add value to a multitude of industries, such as automotive, electronics, aerospace, food, and medical. While in the past the automotive sector was the key end-demand market for global robotics sales, non-automotive sales now represent 58% of the total, demonstrating a broadening reach of automation. Metals, Auto, and Food and Consumer Goods have the highest growth in terms of the purchase of robots (Charts 6 & 7). Chart 6Robots Are Gaining Traction In Multiple Industries Chart 7In The US, Robotization Is Broad-Based We expect the rising digitalization of the manufacturing sector to lead to a new wave of automation investment in developed countries. Key Players In Industrial Robots Space The global industrial robotics market is largely dominated by established Japanese and European companies: ABB, Yaskawa, KUKA, and Fanuc. However, the sizzling demand for robots demonstrates that technological breakthroughs are no longer just about the established players, as many industrial companies, such as Rockwell Automation, Eaton, and Caterpillar, are becoming leaders in this new space. These companies also reach across the aisle to software companies to leverage their expertise in data storage, computing, and artificial intelligence. Rockwell has recently partnered with Microsoft, while others are acquiring software companies. Deere has acquired GUSS Automation, a pioneer in semi-autonomous spring for high-value crops. These companies will benefit from strong demand for their products and should exhibit strong sales and profit growth. Service Robots Are Here To Help Service robots can significantly benefit humans in a variety of fields, including healthcare, automation, construction, household, and entertainment. These robots are managed by internal control systems, with the option of modifying the operation manually. These service robots remove the possibility of human error, manage time, and increase production by lowering the workload of staff and labor. Chart 8Service Robots Across Industries Service robots are quickly becoming an essential part of business for service-focused companies in healthcare, logistics, and retail (Chart 8). Developments in edge artificial intelligence processors and the arrival of 5G telecom services are likely to propel the market for service robots to new heights. The usage of service robots is extremely broad and range from cleaning to preparing meals to delivering goods. The following are some of the key areas that benefit from service robots. Healthcare Common duties assigned to service robots include setting up patient rooms, tracking inventory and placing orders, and transporting supplies, medication, and linens. Cleaning and disinfection robots can also help create a safe and sanitized facility for everyone. Further, robots assist in performing difficult surgeries and medical procedures.  Robots also help the elderly and disabled. For example, ReWalk has developed a wearable robotic exoskeleton that provides powered hip and knee motion to enable individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) to stand upright, walk, turn, and climb and descend stairs. The system allows independent, controlled walking while mimicking the natural gait pattern of the legs. Military Defense Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMR) are helpful for combating fires, disarming bombs, and traversing through dangerous areas. Fully automated drone robots are indispensable for military intelligence and combat operations. Logistics As e-commerce sales continue to surge, logistics businesses are using service robots to help overcome current labor shortages, assist current workers to avoid workforce burnout, and enable warehouse automation. Robotic arms are often assigned tasks like picking, placing, and sorting objects, and because these cobots can navigate warehouses independently, they are used to deliver materials to human workers for accurate and efficient order fulfillment. Some logistics companies, such as FedEx, are experimenting with using AMR for last-mile delivery of goods, which is often the most expensive and least productive part of the entire delivery chain. AMR can navigate sidewalks, unpaved surfaces, and steps while carrying cargo. Key Players In Service Robots Space Many US companies are active in this space. Amazon (AMZN) developed robots to support its fulfillment center operation: Robots help automate storage and retrieval mechanisms throughout vast warehouses. IRobot (IRBT) has developed a series of AI-enabled robot vacuums, mops, and pool cleaners – friendly pet-like bots you may see in many American homes. There are also highly sophisticated surgical robots, developed by Stryker (SYK) and Intelligent Surgical (ISRG).  Collaboration Between Humans And Robots Collaboration between humans and robots is still in its infancy but it is one of the fastest-growing fields within robotics. Cobots work alongside humans, allowing humans to be more productive and avoid tedious or strenuous tasks. Cobots can be installed directly in the current production system, with less space than conventional robots. Equipped with intelligent features such as vision and force sensors, the flexibility of cobots means they can perform tasks like parts handling, assembly, and bin picking. Manufacturers adopting cobots, particularly those featuring vision and inspection systems, are seeing an increase in quality and efficiency. Investment Characteristics I hope we have convinced our readers that Robotics is a promising long-term investment theme. We also noted that the robotics ETFs are currently down substantially from their peaks. However, this report would not have been complete without a closer look at the investment characteristics of the robotics ETFs. A few salient points: Table 2Price Sensitivity Robotics ETFs have betas to the S&P 500 ranging from 1.2 to 1.4 (Table 2), which signals that the robotics sector is a high octane play on the US equity market. The recent pullback in the S&P 500 was particularly punishing for the stocks exposed to robotics. In terms of market capitalization, companies in this space tend to be smaller than the median company in the S&P 500, as they constitute the robotics ecosystem and supply chain (AI, Lidar), and tend to be younger and smaller. Robotics ETFs have always traded at a premium to the market given their superb growth potential. However, currently, ROBO ETF, which is a proxy for the rest of the cohort on a relative basis, is trading just under a half standard deviation above the historical mean (Chart 9). In terms of macroeconomic exposure, all of the robotics ETFs have a pronounced negative exposure to the US dollar – after all, robotics and automation are a global phenomenon. A stronger dollar makes American multinational sales from abroad lower both because of the translation effect and higher prices. The robotics theme doesn’t have much exposure to interest rates, inflation, or commodities, but is somewhat positively exposed to bitcoin (Table 3). Chart 9Valuations And Technicals Are Attractive Table 3Robotics Is A High Octane Equities Theme With A Significant Sensitivity To USD Investment Implications Robotics is a compelling long-term investment theme as Industrial Revolution 4.0 is taking place in front of our eyes. And while over the short term, monetary tightening and slowing economic growth, both at home and abroad, will be a headwind; over time a new Google or Facebook may emerge in this space. We have already watched the success of Nvidia, a supplier of sophisticated chips for the industry. Table 4Comparing ETFs There are four ETFs that focus on Robotics and Automation (Table 4). BOTZ Is the largest ETF with $2.1 billion AUM, followed by ROBO at $1.7 billion, which is also the most expensive (Table A1 in the Appendix) Which one is the best? To answer this question, we have turned to the quant wizards at the BCA Equity Analyzer team. To compare the ETFs, they have assigned a BCA stock selection and Owl Analytics ESG scores to stocks in each of the robotics ETFs, to calculate composites.  We note the BCA composite score is low across the board, as robotics as a nascent investment theme scores low on valuations. We note that while ESG scores are comparable across the portfolios, there is some variation in BCA scores. Overall, ROBO is marginally better than the other options: It has the highest BCA score and is the most liquid. It also has a lower beta to the S&P 500 than BOTZ and IRBO, making it slightly less risky. Unfortunately, it is also the most expensive.  Bottom Line Robotics is an exciting long-term theme that benefits from multiple tailwinds, such as demographic trends, continuous technological innovation, reshoring, and customization. Robots are also becoming more intelligent and dexterous, and have better “senses,” making them suitable for an increasing list of tasks and applications. Robots are also becoming more affordable, which is a catalyst for ubiquitous adoption. Over time, robotics will change our world beyond recognition, improving not only manufacturing and service industries but also our daily lives. And that is a future from which investors should certainly profit.    Irene Tunkel Chief Strategist, US Equity Strategy irene.tunkel@bcaresearch.com   Appendix Table A1ETF Universe Footnotes 1     Clive Cookson in London, "Ouch! Robotic hand with smart skin recoils when jabbed in the palm,”  Financial Times, June 1, 2022, ft.com 2     Ron Jefferson, "Deep Learning Robot with Fine Motor Skills Peel Bananas Without Crushing the Fruit,”  Science Times, March 29, 2022, sciencetimes.com 3     "Is Lidar Going to be Replaced by Machine Vision?”  LiDAR News, January 12, 2022, blog.lidarnews.com 4     Jennifer Stowe, "Automation‌ ‌and‌ ‌IoT‌‌: ‌Transforming‌ ‌How‌ ‌Industries‌ ‌Function‌‌,”  IoT For All, October 12, 2020, iotforall.com Recommended Allocation Recommended Allocation: Addendum

Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and Iran.   Despite the mainstream media narrative, the Xi-Putin summit reinforces our view that China cannot reject Russia’s strategic partnership. The potential for conflict in Taiwan forces China to accept Russia’s overture. For the same reason the US and China cannot re-engage their economies sustainably, even if Biden and Xi somehow manage to reduce tensions after the midterm elections and twentieth national party congress. Russia could reduce oil exports as well as natural gas, intensifying the global energy shock. Ukraine’s counter-offensive and Europe’s energy diversification increase the risk of Russian military and economic failure. The Middle East will destabilize anew and create a new source of global energy supply disruptions. US-Iran talks are faltering as expected. Russian Oil Embargo Could Deliver Global Shock Asset Initiation Date Return LONG GLOBAL DEFENSIVES / CYCLICALS EQUITIES 2022-01-20 19.1% Bottom Line: Stay long US stocks, defensive sectors, and large caps. Avoid China, Taiwan, eastern Europe, and the Middle East. Feature Several notable geopolitical developments occurred over the past week while we met with clients at the annual BCA Research Investment Conference in New York. In this report we analyze these developments using our geopolitical method, which emphasizes constraints over preferences, capabilities over intentions, reality over narrative. We also draw freely from the many valuable insights gleaned from our guest speakers at the conference.  China Cannot Reject Russia: The Xi-Putin Summit In Uzbekistan Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are meeting in Uzbekistan as we go to press and Putin has acknowledged China’s “questions and concern” about the war in Ukraine.1 They last met on February 4 when Xi gave Putin his blessing for the Ukraine invasion, promising to buy more Russian natural gas and to pursue a “no limits” strategic partnership (meaning one that includes extensive military cooperation). The meeting’s importance is clear from both leaders’ efforts to make it happen. Putin is leaving Russia despite rising domestic criticism over his handling of the Ukraine war and European energy war. Ukraine is making surprising gains in the battlefield, particularly around Kharkiv, threatening Russia’s ability to complete the conquest of Donetsk and the Donbas region. Meanwhile Xi is leaving China for the first time since the Covid-19 outbreak, despite the fact that he is only one month away from the most important political event of his life: the October 16 twentieth national party congress, where he hopes to clinch another five, ten, or fifteen years in power, expand his faction’s grip over the political system, and take over Mao Zedong’s unique title as chairman of the Communist Party. We do not yet know the full outcome of the Uzbek summit but we do not see it as a turning point in which China turns on Russia. Instead the summit reinforces our key point to investors all year: China cannot reject Russia. Russia broke energy ties with Europe and is fighting a proxy war with NATO. The Putin regime has lashed Russia to China’s side for the foreseeable future. China may not have wanted to move so quickly toward an exclusive relationship but it is not in a position to reject Russia’s diplomatic overture and leave Putin out to dry. The reason is that China is constrained by the US-led world order and like Russia is attempting to change that order and carve a sphere of influence to improve its national security. Beijing’s immediate goal is to consolidate power across the critical buffer territories susceptible to foreign interests. It has already consolidated Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and to some extent the South China Sea, the critical approach to Taiwan. Taiwan is the outstanding buffer space that needs to be subjugated. Xi Jinping has taken it upon himself to unify China and Taiwan within his extended rule. But Taiwanese public opinion has decisively shifted in favor of either an indefinite status quo or independence. Hence China and Taiwan are on a collision course. Regardless of one’s view on the likelihood of war, it is a high enough chance that China, Taiwan, the US, and others will be preparing for it in the coming years. Chart 1US Arms Sales To Taiwan The US is attempting to increase its ability to deter China from attacking Taiwan. It believes it failed to deter Russia from invading Ukraine – and Taiwan is far more important to US economy and security than Ukraine. The US is already entering discussions with Taiwan and other allies about a package of severe economic sanctions in the event that China attacks – sanctions comparable to those imposed on Russia. The US Congress is also moving forward with the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, which will solidify US support for the island as well as increase arms sales (Chart 1).2  Aside from China's military preparation – which needs to be carefully reviewed in light of Russia’s troubles in Ukraine and the much greater difficulty of invading Taiwan – China must prepare to deal with the following three factors in the event of war: 1. Energy: China is overly exposed to sea lines of communication that can be disrupted by the United States Navy. Beijing will have to partner with Russia to import Russian and Central Asian resources and attempt to forge an overland path to the Middle East (Chart 2). Unlike Russia, China cannot supply its own energy during a war and its warfighting capacity will suffer if shortages occur or prices spike. 2. Computer Chips: China has committed at least $200 billion on a crash course to build its own semiconductors since 2013 due to the need to modernize its military and economy and compete with the US on the global stage. But China is still dependent on imports, especially for the most advanced chips, and its dependency is rising not falling despite domestic investments (Chart 3). The US is imposing export controls on advanced microchips and starting to enforce these controls on third parties. The US and its allies have cut off Russia’s access to computer chips, leading to Russian shortages that are impeding their war effort.  Chart 2China’s Commodity Import Vulnerability Chart 3China's Imports Of Semiconductors     3. US Dollar Reserves: China is still heavily exposed to US dollar assets but its access will be cut off in the event of war, just as the US has frozen Russian, Iranian, Venezuelan, and Cuban assets over the years. China is already diversifying away from the dollar but will have to move more quickly given that Russia had dramatically reduced its exposure and still suffered severely when its access to dollar reserves was frozen this year (Chart 4). Where will China reallocate its reserves? To developing and importing natural resources from Russia, Central Asia, and other overland routes. Chart 4China's US Dollar Exposure Russia may be the junior partner in a new Russo-Chinese alliance but it will not be a vassal. Russia has resources, military power, and regional control in Central Asia that China needs. Of course, China will maintain a certain diplomatic distance from Russia because it needs to maintain economic relations with Europe and other democracies as it breaks up with the United States. Europe is far more important to Chinese exports than Russia. China will play both sides and its companies will develop parallel supply chains. China will also make gestures to countries that feel threatened by Russia, including the Central Asian members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). But the crucial point is that China cannot reject Russia. If the Putin regime fails, China will be diplomatically isolated, it will lose an ally in any Taiwan war, and the US will have a much greater advantage in attempting to contain China in the coming years and decades. Russo-Chinese Alliance And The US Dollar Many investors speculate that China’s diversification away from the US dollar will mark a severe downturn for the currency. This is of course possible, given that Russia and China will form a substantial anti-dollar bloc. Certainly there can be a cyclical downturn in the greenback, especially after the looming recession troughs. But it is harder to see a structural collapse of the dollar as the leading global reserve currency. The past 14 years have shown how global investors react to US dysfunction, Russian aggression, and Chinese slowdown: they buy the dollar! The implication is that a US wage-price spiral, a Russian détente with Europe, and a Chinese economic recovery would be negative for the dollar – but those stars have not yet aligned. Related Report  Geopolitical StrategyThe Geopolitical Consequences Of The Ukraine War The reason China needs to diversify is because it fears US sanctions when it invades Taiwan. Hence reducing its holdings of US treasuries and the dollar signals that it expects war in future. But will other countries rush into the yuan and yuan-denominated bonds if Xi is following in Putin’s footsteps and launching a war of choice, with damaging consequences for the economy? A war over Taiwan would be a global catastrophe and would send other countries plunging into the safe-haven assets, including US assets.   Nevertheless China will diversify and other countries will probably increase their yuan trade over time, just as Russia has done. This will be a cyclical headwind for the dollar at some point. But it will not knock the US off the premier position. That would require a historic downgrade in the US’s economic and strategic capability, as was the case with the United Kingdom after the world wars. China will continue to stimulate the economy after the party congress. A successful Chinese and global economic rebound next year – and a decision to pursue “jaw jaw” with the US and Taiwan rather than “war war” – would be negative for the dollar. Hence we may downgrade our bullish dollar view to neutral on a cyclical basis before long … but not yet and not on a structural basis.  Bottom Line: Favor the US dollar and the euro over the Chinese renminbi and Taiwanese dollar. Underweight Chinese and Taiwanese assets on a structural basis. Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive And A Russian Oil Embargo Ukraine launched a counter-offensive against Russia in September and achieved significant early victories. Russians fell back away from Kharkiv, putting Izyum in Ukrainian hands and jeopardizing Russia’s ability to achieve its war aim of conquering the remaining half of Donetsk province and thus controlling the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Russian positions also crumbled west of the Dnieper river, which was always an important limit on Russian capabilities (Map 1). Map 1Status Of Russia-Ukraine War: The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive (September 15, 2022) Some commentators, such as Francis Fukuyama in the Washington Post, have taken the Ukrainian counter-offensive as a sign that the Ukrainians will reconquer lost territory and Russia will suffer an outright defeat in this war.3 If Russia cannot conquer the Donbas, its control of the “land bridge” to Crimea will be unsustainable, and it may have to admit defeat. But we are very skeptical. It will be extremely difficult for Ukrainians to drive the Russians out of all of their entrenched positions. US military officials applauded Ukraine’s counter-offensive but sounded a cautious note. The chief problem is that neither President Putin nor the Russian military can afford such a defeat. They will have to double down on the Donbas and land bridge. The war will be prolonged. Ultimately we expect stalemate, which will be a prelude to ceasefire negotiations. But first the fighting will intensify and the repercussions for global economy and markets will get worse. Russia’s war effort is also flagging because Europe is making headway in finding alternatives for Russian natural gas. Russia has cut off flows through the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, the Yamal pipeline to Poland, and partially to the Ukraine pipeline system, leaving only Turkstream operating normally. Yet EU gas storage is in the middle of its normal range and trending higher (Chart 5).   Chart 5Europe Handling Natural Gas Crisis Well … So Far Of course, Europe’s energy supply is still not secure. Cold weather could require more heating than expected. Russia has an incentive to tighten the gas flow further. Flows from Algeria or Azerbaijan could be sabotaged or disrupted (Chart 6). Chart 6Europe’s NatGas Supply Still Not Secure Chart 7Europe Tipping Into Recession Anyway Russia’s intention is to inflict a recession on Europe so that it begins to rethink its willingness to maintain a long-term proxy war. Recession will force European households to pay the full cost of the energy breakup with Russia all at once. Popular support for war will moderate and politicians will adopt more pragmatic diplomacy. After all they do not have an interest in prolonging the war to the point that it spirals out of control. Clearly the economic pain is being felt, as manufacturing expectations and consumer confidence weaken (Chart 7). Europe’s resolve will not collapse overnight. But the energy crisis can get worse from here. The deeper the recession, the more likely European capitals will try to convince Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire.   However, given Ukraine’s successes in the field and Europe’s successes in diversification, it is entirely possible that Russia faces further humiliating setbacks. While this outcome may be good for liberal democracies, it is not good for global financial markets, at least not in the short run. If Russia is backed into a corner on both the military and economic fronts, then Putin’s personal security and regime security will be threatened. Russia could attempt to turn the tables or lash out even more aggressively. Already Moscow has declared a new “red line” if the US provides longer-range missiles to Ukraine. A US-Russia showdown, complete with nuclear threats, is not out of the realm of possibility. Russia could also start halting oil exports, as it has threatened to do, to inflict a major oil shock on the European economy. Investors will need to be prepared for that outcome.  Bottom Line: Petro-states have geopolitical leverage as long as global commodity supplies remain tight. Investors should be prepared for the European embargo of Russian oil to provoke a Russian reaction. A larger than expected oil shock is possible given the risk of defeat that Russia faces (Chart 8). Chart 8Russian Oil Embargo Could Deliver Global Shock US-Iran Talks Falter Again This trend of petro-state geopolitical leverage was one of our three key views for 2022 and it also extends to the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, which are faltering as expected. Tit-for-tat military action between Iran and its enemies in the Persian Gulf will pick up immediately – i.e. a new source of oil disruption will emerge. If global demand is collapsing then this trend may only create additional volatility for oil markets at first, but it further constrains the supply side for the foreseeable future. It is not yet certain that the talks are dead but a deal before the US midterm looks unlikely. Biden could continue working on a deal in 2023-24. The Democratic Party is likely to lose at least the House of Representatives, leaving him unable to pass legislation and more likely to pursue foreign policy objectives. The Biden administration wants the Iran deal to tamp down inflation and avoid a third foreign policy crisis at a time when it is already juggling Russia and China. The overriding constraints in this situation are that Iran needs a nuclear weapon for regime survival, while Israel will attack Iran as a last resort before it obtains a nuclear weapon. Yes, the US is reluctant to initiate another war in the Middle East. But public war-weariness is probably overrated today (unlike in 2008 or even 2016) and the US has drawn a hard red line against nuclear weaponization. Iran will retaliate to any US-Israeli aggression ferociously. But conflict and oil disruptions will emerge even before the US or Israel decide to launch air strikes, as Iran will face sabotage and cyber-attacks and will need to deter the US and Israel by signaling that it can trigger a region-wide war. Chart 9If US-Iran Talks Fail, Iraq Will Destabilize Further Recent social unrest in Iraq, where the nationalist coalition of Muqtada al-Sadr is pushing back against Iranian influence, is only an inkling of what can occur if the US-Iran talks are truly dead, Iran pushes forward with its nuclear program, and Israel and the US begin openly entertaining military options. The potential oil disruption from Iraq presents a much larger supply constraint than the failure to remove sanctions on Iran (Chart 9). A new wave of Middle Eastern instability would push up oil prices and strengthen Russia’s hand, distracting the US and imposing further pain on Europe. It would not strengthen China’s hand, but the risk itself would reinforce China’s Eurasian strategy, as Beijing would need to prepare for oil cutoffs in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s attempts to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should be seen in this context. Ultimately the only factor that could still possibly convince Iran not to make a dash for the bomb – the military might of the US and its allies – is the same factor that forces China and Russia to strengthen their strategic bond. The emerging Russo-Chinese behemoth, in turn, acts as a hard constraint on any substantial reengagement of the US and Chinese economies. The US cannot afford to feed another decade of Chinese economic growth and modernization if China is allied with Russia and Central Asia. Of course, we cannot rule out the possibility that the Xi and Biden administrations will try to prevent a total collapse of US-China relations in 2023. If China is not yet ready to invade Taiwan then there is a brief space for diplomacy to try to work. But there is no room for long-lasting reengagement – because the US cannot simply cede Taiwan to China, and hence China cannot reject Russia, and Russia no longer has any options. Bottom Line: Expect further oil volatility and price shocks. Sell Middle Eastern equities. Favor North American, Latin American, and Australian energy producers. Investment Takeaways Recession Risks Rising: The inflation surprise in the US in August necessitates more aggressive Fed rate hikes in the near term, which increases the odds of rising unemployment and recession. US Policy Uncertainty Rising: A recession will greatly increase the odds of US political instability over the 2022-24 cycle and reduce the incentive for foreign powers like Iran or China to make concessions or agreements with the US. European Policy Uncertainty Rising: We already expected a European recession. Russia’s setbacks make it more likely that it will adopt more aggressive military tactics and economic warfare. Chinese Policy Uncertainty Rising: China will continue stimulating next year but its economy will suffer from energy shocks and its stimulus is less effective than in the past. It will likely increase economic and military pressure on Taiwan, while the US will increase punitive measures against China. It is not clear that it will launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan – that is not our base case – but it is possible so investors need to be prepared. Long US and Defensives: Stay long US stocks over global stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Buy safe-havens like the oversold Japanese yen. Long Arms Manufacturers: Buy defense stocks and cyber-security firms. Short China and Taiwan: Favor the USD and EUR over the CNY. Favor US semiconductor stocks over Taiwanese equities. Favor Korean over Taiwanese equities. Favor Indian tech over Chinese tech. Favor Singaporean over Hong Kong stocks. Matt Gertken Chief Geopolitical Strategist mattg@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1     Tessa Wong and Simon Fraser, “Putin-Xi talks: Russian leader reveals China's 'concern' over Ukraine,” BBC, September 15, 2022, bbc.com. 2     US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “The Taiwan Policy Act of 2022,” foreign.senate.gov. 3    Greg Sargent, “Is Putin facing defeat? The ‘End of History’ author remains confident,” Washington Post, September 12, 2022, washingtonpost.com.                                                                                         Strategic Themes Open Tactical Positions (0-6 Months) Open Cyclical Recommendations (6-18 Months) Regional Geopolitical Risk Matrix