Economy
The ISM Manufacturing index declined from 50.9 to 50.2 in October, nearing stagnation and the lowest level since May 2020. The details of the report highlight conflicting dynamics at play in the US manufacturing sector. Although production growth accelerated…
The predominant risk to China’s economy is demand-driven deflation. Very weak demand-side data highlight that a lack of demand, rather than supply-side improvements, is driving disinflation in China. Core and service consumer inflation now stand at only 0.6%…
The Global PMI suggests that factory activity deteriorated at a faster rate in October. The Manufacturing index declined from 49.8 to 49.4, marking the third consecutive monthly contraction. Notably, all seven subindexes either declined or remained below 50…
As expected, the Fed delivered a 75bp rate hike on Wednesday, bringing the cumulative increase in the Fed funds rate to 375bps since the start of the tightening cycle in March. The FOMC statement was amended from September to include a new sentence stating…
China's economy is about to experience demand-driven deflation. The lack of an economic recovery and falling producer prices will depress corporate profits and, hence, share prices. Beijing will allow the yuan to depreciate more to prop up its economy.
After plummeting 8% m/m in August, US job openings increased by 4.3% to 10.7 million in September, surprising expectations of another monthly decline. Accommodation & food services, healthcare as well as transportation and warehousing drove the bulk of job…
Most of the global financial assets we track rebounded in October, following a period of poor performance in the prior two months. DM bourses led global stocks higher. In particular, US equities benefitted from oversold conditions and registered the largest…
The Chinese manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics contracted anew in October, after briefly improving above the 50 boom-bust line in September. The headline index decreased from 50.1 to 49.2, missing expectations. Notably, production…
On Monday, investors cheered former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (Lula) victory over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election held over the weekend. However, Brazil’s financial markets are at risk of experiencing…
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service concludes that the US does not face unusually large disruptions from increasing mortgage rates like economies where mortgage borrowers confront significant rate resets that will amount to a daunting increase in…