Economy

Our bullish view on commodity prices is underpinned by demand growth driven by stronger real GDP, led by EM. Threats to this view – i.e., a failed re-opening in China, stronger USD, higher real rates in the US, and continued policy uncertainty – are non-trivial. All the same, we remain bullish industrial commodities and gold.

This US Bond Strategy Insight discusses what we learned from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, and discusses the implications of the market’s reaction.

President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds over equities.

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

The Web 2.0 bubble is bursting, with far-reaching consequences for US stock market behaviour, sector allocation, and global asset allocation.