Economy
Global natural gas prices have collapsed over the past few months. Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility dropped by 88% since August. According to our China Investment strategists, lower prices will attract Chinese demand for LNG following a contraction…
Data released over the past week show a resurgence in short-term US consumer inflation expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Survey’s measure of year-ahead expectations jumped by 1 percentage point to a 5-month high of 4.6% in April. Similarly,…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, if we really are on the steep side of the aggregate supply curve, then falling demand will largely drive down inflation without driving down employment. Many investors and market commentators are…
A benign disinflation is probable during the remainder of 2023. Unfortunately, just when most people become convinced that a recession has been avoided, a recession will begin.
Chinese trade data delivered a strong positive surprise on Thursday. Exports jumped by 14.8% y/y in USD terms in March following five consecutive months of contraction and beating expectations of a 7.1% y/y decline. In particular, sales to ASEAN soared by…
The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker reaccelerated in March, contradicting the signal from Average Hourly Earnings. The former rose from 6.1% to 6.4% (albeit below the 2022 peak of 6.7%) as the latter eased from 4.6% to 4.2%. Notably, service-sector wage…
There are several widespread market narratives regarding US inflation, the Fed’s policy, global manufacturing/trade and China’s recovery that we disagree with. In this report, we explain our reasoning and where it puts us in terms of investment strategies.
Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to these themes to bolster long-term returns.
The US core consumer price index grew 0.38% in March, down from 0.45% in February and the lowest monthly print since November. The year-over-year core inflation rate is still a worryingly high 5.60%, but there is mounting evidence that a downtrend has begun.…
As expected, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% for the second consecutive time on Wednesday. In the Monetary Policy Report, the central bank revised up its GDP forecast for 2023 from 1.0% to 1.4%, but revised down the 2024 estimate to…