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Economy

Essentials
Eurozone Sentix: Green Shoots?
The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone sent a positive signal on Monday. It unexpectedly increased from -22.5 to -18.9 in August, surprising expectations of a further deterioration to -24.5. This marks the index’s first increase in four months. A…
3 years ago
Essentials
Beware The Specter Of Inflation Making A Comeback
Core inflation in the US should drift lower in the coming months. However, it is too early to conclude that the US is completely out of the woods when it comes to inflation. Given that the US job market remains tight, and the economy remains resilient, it is…
3 years ago
CoreMacro
Taking Stock

August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks?

Mathieu Savary
3 years ago
Essentials
US Labor Market: Resilient But Cooling
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by less than anticipated in July, rising by 187 thousand versus expectations of 200 thousand. In addition, the June increase was revised down from 209 thousand to 185 thousand. Similarly, average weekly hours worked…
3 years ago
Essentials
August Has Been Rough On Equities (So Far)
The S&P 500 has had a rough start to August. The index’s selloff since the end of July has pushed it down by 2.4%. Notably, the weakness is broad-based with all S&P 500 sectors in the red over this period. This marks a sharp reversal in performance following…
3 years ago
Essentials
Heed Maersk’s Warning?
On Friday, shipping giant Maersk delivered a pessimistic outlook for global trade. Although the company raised its 2023 earnings forecast, the upgrade comes on the back of a better-than-anticipated performance in the first half of the year. Ebitda fell by 72%…
3 years ago
Essentials
Where Next For The Euro?
Ever since the bottom below 0.96, the euro has staged a powerful rally. At 1.1, the euro is up 14.6% from its lows. The key question going forward is if investors should chase the rally, or fade strength in the common currency. Our FX strategists suggest that…
3 years ago
Essentials
A Case For EM ex-China Equities?
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, EM ex-China equities have potential to outperform China and DM in the remainder of the year. Relative to their own history and compared to other EMs, Chinese stocks are fairly cheap based on…
3 years ago
FICC
Don't Chase Yields Higher

Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.

Ryan Swift
3 years ago
CoreMacro
What Ails China Is Not What Most Investors Think

China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is exporting deflation is not such a bad thing. However, if global recession risks were to flare up again, a lethargic Chinese economy would be a cause for concern. Chinese stocks are quite cheap but lack a clear catalyst to move higher. Favor EM markets where earnings and sales estimates have been moving up lately.

Peter Berezin
3 years ago
China

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