Latest from BCA Research

Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June 23.

Three strategies that could win whatever the outcome of Britain's referendum on EU membership. And what to look out for in the final days before the vote.

Special Report

The fundamental reason behind the debt buildup in the Chinese economy is rooted in its high savings and banking-centric intermediation system. It is wrong to focus solely on the liability side of the economy. Viewed from a balance sheet perspective, China's debt situation is much less dire than commonly perceived.

Special Report

The exponential rise in banks' non-standard credit assets has occurred in spite of the government's efforts to contain and regulate it. The government does not have full control over shadow banking and non-large banks. These have become a large part of the credit system. Hence, the assumption that the central government in Beijing can sustain any rate of credit growth it desires is overly simplistic. Short small bank stocks in China.

At current levels, Treasury yields are consistent with our assessment of fair value. Further, the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index does not suggest an imminent recession. Expect payrolls to stabilize above levels consistent with further progress on wage growth and inflation, allowing the Fed to hike rates later this year.

For now, maintain a benchmark duration stance leading into the June 23 U.K. Brexit vote, favoring Treasuries and (especially) Gilts over Bunds and JGBs.