Latest from BCA Research

Global oil demand will continue to surprise to the upside over the balance of the year - growing at a rate of 1.6 MMb/d - following an unexpected surge over the first five months of 2016.

There are not two possibilities in today's vote, but four: Clear Remain; Narrow Remain; Narrow Leave; Clear Leave. We discuss the distinct repercussions from each.

EM/China oil demand is not as strong as some reputable energy sources have indicated. As and when the oil market shifts its attention from supply cutbacks to subdued EM/China oil demand, oil prices will relapse. Renewed drop in commodities prices and poor growth in EM will weigh on EM risk assets going forward.

The Chinese government is engaging in a difficult balancing act between the imperative of maintaining growth momentum and structural reforms. Policymakers have eased off the gas pedal, but the impact of previous stimulative measures should continue to filter through the economy. Investors should also curb their enthusiasm in assessing China's demand-side countercyclical initiatives.

The secular stagnation narrative is gaining traction amongst the FOMC. Expect further downward revisions to longer run FOMC interest rates forecasts, toward levels already discounted in the Treasury curve.