Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

This week, we are introducing a new investment benchmark index that includes all the countries and sectors that we regularly cover in our research, and a detailed recommended portfolio that fully reflects our market views.

Consumer products stocks are likely to move to an even larger valuation premium before the cyclical outperformance phase ends.

Special Report

The secular bond bull market is over. Safety is in a bubble. The shift from monetary to fiscal easing is the most likely candidate to prick the bubble in safety. In this piece we revise our yield portfolio to increase its resilience to interest rate shocks.

Special Report

We extracted the key factors driving currency returns; these variables approximate the dollar, EM spreads, and commodities. Any currency's sensitivity to these factors can be estimated, offering a great degree of flexibility for investors to generate trade ideas. Based on our macro views, this approach recommends being short commodity currencies and being long the dollar. The BoJ, BoE, and Riksbank are also covered.

A looming Fed rate hike will weigh on stocks over the coming weeks. One of the reasons cited for raising rates is the possibility that continued low interest rates are endangering financial stability. Historical evidence suggests that excessive financial deregulation, rather than lower interest rates, has been the primary cause of financial crises. In fact, easy monetary policy - to the extent that it leads to higher inflation and higher nominal interest rates - can actually enhance financial stability.

Special Report

Fed policy - and, importantly, policy expectations' effect on the broad trade-weighted USD (TWI) - will dominate price evolution over the short term, as markets puzzle out if and when a rate hike is coming this year.