Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

The Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to ramp up its defense spending. This will greatly benefit its defense industry, especially if defense coordination across the EU increases.

Monetary tightening has brought the vulnerabilities of the mid-size banks into the spotlight, and their peril will weigh on economic growth. Therefore, we favor defensives over cyclicals. We also downgrade Banks to underweight from neutral as the industry faces multiple headwinds, ranging from slowing demand for loans to regulatory scrutiny.

Special Report

The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report.

The banking crisis has hit European shores and engulfed CS; is this all bad news for Europe or have the odds of a policy mistake declined?

In this Insight we test how a delay in the implementation of a BCA Score driven strategy affects its return profile.

The turmoil in US regional banks will weigh on economic growth. Arguably, it would be better for the broader stock market if growth slowed because banks became more conservative in their lending than if it slowed because the Fed had to raise rates to over 6%. In both cases, economic growth would decelerate but at least in the former scenario, the discount rate applied to earnings would not be as high.

Depending on market volatility during the next few trading days, the Fed will either lift rates by 25 bps next week or pause its tightening cycle. Either way, the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak but rate cuts won’t be coming anytime soon.

Bank Credit Analyst

The Fed’s Volckeresque rate-hiking campaign has challenged all banks, but Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were anomalously vulnerable and the Fed’s new lending facility will ease the liquidity pressures on other banks. The current turmoil is not a replay of 2008.

Bank Credit Analyst

Welcome to BCA Crypto - a research series on cryptocurrencies. Over the next few months, we will release a series of reports analyzing this polarizing asset class. In this introductory report we distinguish between fact and fiction, clearing some of the misconceptions that investors often have about the cryptocurrency market, cryptocurrency custody, market participants, risk, return and correlation. We conclude that while the correlation between equities and cryptocurrencies will stay relatively high until the end of the cycle, at least for Bitcoin, this correlation probably peaked last year.

Bank Credit Analyst

A cryptocurrency is a digital representation of value native to a blockchain and secured by cryptography. But what exactly does this mean? In this report we go over a step-by-step guide on how a group of friends might go about creating a crypto¬currency from scratch. In the process we cover some important concepts related to cryptocurrencies such as private keys, nodes, networks, blockchains, and consensus mechanisms