Latest from BCA Research
Cybersecurity costs continue to climb, which compels companies and governments alike to increase spending on cybersecurity to bolster digital protection. This will boost sales of companies in the cybersecurity ecosystem. While performance of the cybersecurity cohort may be volatile over a short investment horizon, it has significant long-term investment potential. Cybersecurity is a USES strategic investment theme.
In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.
Both EV and Green Energy themes still hold strategic promise for investors, posing large upside, despite prevailing macro headwinds. While both themes have yet to claw back their pandemic peaks, a broadening of the rally supports a run for both, even in the face of high valuations.
The S&P 500 reached our 4,500 mid-year target last week, but the bears have yet to capitulate and stocks could melt up so we are placing a trailing stop on our tactical overweight instead of downgrading equities outright.
In recent months, the European and US economies have greatly diverged, with the Euro Area massively disappointing while the US has surprised to the upside. Can this dichotomy continue or is it Europe’s turn to shine?
In this Insight, we review the latest Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand meetings, and suggest the appropriate bond and currency strategies.
In this Insight, we review the latest Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand meetings, and suggest the appropriate bond and currency strategies.
Stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. The good news is that the economic growth score for the US in our MacroQuant model is above its historic average. The bad news is that US economy is operating with little slack and sentiment is getting complacent. We recommend that investors maintain a modest overweight to equities for the time being but look to get more defensive later this year or in early 2024.
Q2-2023 is expected to be a bookend quarter to the earnings contraction of the past year, and hopefully, will open a new chapter. Much of that potential positive news is already priced as the market has been looking past earnings contraction. However, with valuations stretched, the market is fragile and the reaction to disappointment will be brutal.
In this report, we explore Brazil’s inflation and monetary policy outlook, the Lula administration’s back-and-forth between pragmatism and populism, and how these factors will affect Brazilian financial markets going forward. All in all, we believe Brazilian risk assets will be in a trading range relative to their EM peers in the next 12 months.