Geopolitics

We do not expect Russia and OPEC members to reach a production-limiting agreement at the April 17 meeting in Doha, but that does not diminish our bullish expectations for a rebalancing of oil markets in H2 2016.

The ECB's intended purchases of corporate bonds will not sustainably lift the asset-class. But we have found a compelling long-term opportunity in the sovereign bond market, and a way to hedge Brexit risk.

We are sending you the Q2 <i>Global Investment Strategy Outlook</i>, which discusses the ten predictions we expect to drive global financial markets throughout the rest of the year.

Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.

Several tail risks appear less ominous compared to last month. Nonetheless, the earnings outlook has not improved and the FOMC will turn more hawkish ahead of the June meeting. Stay defensively positioned.

The British pound may be prone to further weakness in the coming months as the odds of a Brexit rise.

Lower oil prices are aggravating financial and social stress in poorer OPEC states, particularly in Venezuela, where the government recently executed a gold-for-cash swap ahead of looming debt payments.

Headline and aggregate-economy statistics such as GDP and income are no longer representative statistics for the living standards of the vast majority of the population. This <i>Special Report</i> discusses the implications for politics, economics and investment.

Most of the economic arguments in favor of the U.K. leaving the EU do not carry much weight, as we discuss in this collaboration between BCA's <i>Geopolitical Strategy</i> and <i>European Investment Strategy</i>. However, the probability is a coin toss - much higher than investors tend to think. We review the geopolitical and investment implications of the "Leave" and "Remain" scenarios.

This week's report is guest-authored by my colleague, Marko Papic, BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist. In a highly controversial piece, Marko argues that Donald Trump's strategy of focusing on the concerns of white working class voters may represent the GOP's best hope for winning this year's presidential election. As such, we expect the political debate to remain highly charged over the coming months, possibly to the detriment of risk assets.