Equities
Regardless of who wins the U.S. election, the gaping mismatch between fundamentals and broad market valuations remains intact, but will be in jeopardy of re-converging should the Fed signal an intention to tighten monetary conditions through next year. As previously outlined, our view is that the economy, particularly the corporate sector, will struggle further if financial conditions become more restrictive and/or election uncertainty persists. The non-financial corporate sector's return on equity has already fallen to its lowest level in more than 60 years. Yet the median price/sales and price/earnings ratios are flirting with all-time highs. That divergence is not sustainable, given the direct link between ROE, profit growth and valuations. Central bank benevolence has underwritten this gap, and any ebbing in financial liquidity is a potential catalyst for it to close.
Gold shares have bounced of late, aided by U.S. political uncertainty and a bullish long-term backdrop. Indeed, the likelihood of a prolonged period of negative to ultra-low real interest rates is high given startlingly low potential GDP growth in most of the developed world. Gold shares typically do well in the aftermath of a debt binge. When we took profits in August, we advised that we would look to return to an overweight position once tactical downside risks had been reduced. Are we there yet? Extreme bullishness toward the yellow metal has not yet fully unwound. While the share price ratio has dropped back to its 200-day moving average, cyclical momentum remains stretched, as measured by the 52-week rate of change. Sentiment in the commodity pits is still elevated, flows into gold ETFs are still strong and net speculative positions have not yet made a full retreat. The implication is that there could be additional selling pressure in the coming weeks. In terms of potential buy triggers, anything that causes the U.S. dollar to lose its bid is a strong candidate. Ironically, a Fed rate hike could produce such an outcome, contrary to popular wisdom. In our view, the U.S. (and global) economy cannot handle tighter financial conditions, and a rise in interest rates would need to be offset by a weaker currency. Gold shares perform well when economic expectations are faltering, and a hawkish Fed would likely raise global economic fears. Stay neutral, but stay tuned.
Bank stocks have moved higher, following the sell-off in global bond markets and steepening in yield curves sparked initially by the Bank of Japan's curve targeting shift and a reversal of incremental easing expectations from the Bank of England. However, we are not convinced that the relative performance bear market is over. Bank profits have not been able to outpace the broad corporate sector since the beginning of 2015, even though loan growth has been healthy and overall earnings were crushed by the implosion in commodity prices during that period, allowing most other sectors to show earnings outperformance. Now loan growth is rolling over and credit quality is beginning to erode. Perhaps more worrying is that banks are no longer pruning cost structures, which is unusual given that credit standards are tightening on most credit products outside of traditional mortgages. In the last 25 years, or as far back as we have the data, bank stocks lagged the broad market after bank employment started rising. The only exception was in the aftermath of the tech bubble, when all non-TMT sectors outperformed. If banks continue to expand their wage bill, without a widening in net interest margins and/or reversal in increased loan loss reserving, bank profits will fail to match the growth rate of the overall S&P 500. We recommend selling into strength.
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Bank profits are unlikely to match those of the broad market if the Fed hikes interest rates and loan demand cools. Sell into strength. Gold shares are looking increasingly attractive, but we will refrain from upgrading until the U.S. dollar is closer to a peak. Drug pricing power is worse than government data suggests, warranting a downshift in our previously upbeat view toward pharmaceutical equities. Recent Changes S&P Health Care - Removed from our high conviction list. Upgrade Alert Gold Shares - Currently neutral. Downgrade Alert S&P Pharmaceuticals Index - Currently overweight. S&P Biotech Index - Currently overweight. Table 1 Feature Chart 1From Greed To Fear The gaping mismatch between fundamentals and broad market valuations remains intact, but will be in jeopardy of re-converging should the Fed signal an intention to tighten monetary conditions through next year. As previously outlined, our view is that the economy, particularly the corporate sector, will struggle further if financial conditions become more restrictive and/or election uncertainty persists. Indeed, investors have been scrambling to buy protection, aggressively bidding up near-term VIX contracts, especially relative to longer-term contracts. While it is tempting to view this increase in fear as a contrary positive, this measure typically sinks lower when investors turn cautious. Chart 1 shows that tactical broad market vulnerability still exists. On a more fundamental basis, the non-financial corporate sector's return on equity has already fallen to its lowest level in more than 60 years (Chart 2). Yet the median price/sales and price/earnings ratios are flirting with all-time highs (Chart 2). That divergence is not sustainable, given the direct link between ROE, profit growth and valuations. Central bank benevolence has underwritten this gap. Third quarter earnings have failed to impress thus far, keeping the equity market locked in a tight range. So far, one nascent trend is that domestic and consumer-linked equities appear to be gaining traction at the expense of global, business-dependent sectors. We expect the complexion of earnings contributions to become more lopsided in the quarters ahead, in support of most of these budding trend changes. The inevitable upshot of a strong U.S. dollar is deteriorating profit breadth. Chart 3 shows that the number of industry groups experiencing rising forward earnings estimates is likely to erode as the currency strengthens. Clearly, industries most reliant on exports and/or capital spending are most vulnerable. The corporate sector has run up debt levels and is struggling to generate profit growth. In turn, business spending has been compromised, as measured by the contraction in core durable goods orders (Chart 3). On the flipside, consumers have rebuilt their savings and are enjoying the benefits of a positive wealth effect. The increase in real wage and salary growth is underpinning real median household income. The latter surged 5.2%, posting the largest percentage increase in the history of the data. Consumer income expectations are well supported (Chart 3, top panel). The implication is that consumption-oriented plays should be well positioned to deliver profit outperformance, even if the labor market slows. From an investment theme perspective, the upshot is domestic-oriented areas are poised to make a comeback relative to globally-exposed sectors after a burst of speed in recent months (Chart 4). Net earnings revisions are already shifting in that direction, with more upside ahead based on U.S. dollar strength, as well as dirt cheap relative valuations (Chart 4). Chart 2A Disturbing Mismatch Chart 3Consumers Are Stronger Than Corporates Chart 4Favor Domestic Vs. Global One exception is the banking sector, where there is limited scope for earnings outperformance and/or valuation expansion. Bank Stocks Are Showing Signs Of Life, But... Bank stocks have moved higher, following the sell-off in global bond markets and steepening in yield curves sparked initially by the Bank of Japan's curve targeting shift and a reversal of incremental easing expectations from the Bank of England. However, we are not convinced that the relative performance bear market is over. A Special Report published on October 3 surveyed the performance of banks during Fed tightening cycles, to help put context around the widely held view that Fed rate hikes will bolster bank stocks on a sustained basis. History shows there has been only a loose relationship between the Fed funds rate and net interest margins. It would take rising rate expectations within the context of a steeper yield curve, improving credit quality and rapid loan growth to justify an optimistic profit outlook. Bank profits have not been able to outpace the broad corporate sector since the beginning of 2015 (Chart 5, top panel), even though loan growth has been healthy and overall earnings were crushed by the implosion in commodity prices during that period, allowing most other sectors to show earnings outperformance. Will another 25 bps interest rate hike remedy this? The Fed is keen to hike rates partially because it views them as being overly accommodative for an economy operating close to full employment, and is keen to reestablish firepower in advance of the next economic downturn. But there is scant evidence of economic overheating to support the view that rates have been 'too low'. Inflation and inflation expectations, while up from very depressed levels, are still historically low and the economy is struggling to grow at, let alone above, trend. Consequently, a strident Fed would boost the odds of a policy mistake. The market appears to share that view, given the failure of the yield curve to stop narrowing since the taper talk started, notwithstanding the recent blip up (Chart 5, bottom panel). Chart 5Why Would Bank Profits Outperform Now? Chart 6Beware U.S. Dollar Strength Now that the USD is strengthening anew, the odds of imported deflation have climbed, to the detriment of corporate profits and bank stock relative performance (Chart 6, top panel). While nominal yields have backed up, real 2-year yields have declined, which is not consistent with an upgrading in economic expectations. Indeed, C&I loan growth has dropped sharply in recent weeks (Chart 6). By extension, it is hard to envision long-term yields rising much, if at all, which will keep net interest margins thin. Furthermore, if overall earnings remain stuck in neutral, corporate credit quality will undoubtedly worsen given the debt binge in recent years. Non-performing loans have only just begun to increase. Higher interest rates will not solve these problems. Instead, the downturn in credit quality could accelerate via more onerous debt servicing requirements, given the lack of a corporate sector balance sheet cushion. Perhaps more worrying is that banks are no longer pruning cost structures, which is unusual given that credit standards are tightening on most credit products outside of traditional mortgages. In the last 25 years, or as far back as we have the data, bank stocks lagged the broad market after bank employment started rising. The only exception was in the aftermath of the tech bubble, when all non-TMT sectors outperformed (Chart 7). If banks continue to expand their wage bill, without a widening in net interest margins and/or reversal in increased loan loss reserving, bank profits will fail to match the growth rate of the overall S&P 500. The optimal, but not exclusive, time for banks to outperform is typically exiting recession, when policy is easing and the yield curve is steepening, and in the late innings of an expansion. In fact, productivity is sagging throughout the financial sector. Financial sector employment is probing new highs (Chart 8), reflecting a more onerous cost structure required to meet regulatory obligations. Employment is now growing faster than sales, a reliable indication of flagging productivity. The implication is that financial sector profits will continue to lag those of the broad market. Chart 7Beware Rising Bank Employment Chart 8Sectoral Productivity Drain Bottom Line: Strength in bank stocks is a chance to sell. Is It Time To Buy Back Gold Shares? Gold shares are bouncing after having been punished in the last few months. Overheated technical conditions and prospects for a more hawkish Fed led us to recommend taking profits in August, despite a positive long-term outlook. Indeed, the likelihood of a prolonged period of negative to ultra-low real interest rates is high given startlingly low potential GDP growth in most of the developed world. Gold shares typically do well in the aftermath of a debt binge, as proxied by our Corporate Health Monitor (CHM, shown advanced, Chart 9). It is unnerving that the CHM has suffered such a broad-based deterioration without any back up in interest rates. Low interest rates and tight credit spreads have cushioned what has otherwise been a stark erosion in debt servicing capabilities: there is little scope for a parallel upshift in the global interest rate structure. These are bullish conditions for gold shares, as captured by the upbeat reading in our Cyclical Gold Indicator (Chart 9, top panel). As such, when we took profits we advised that we would look to return to an overweight position once tactical downside risks had been reduced. Are we there yet? Chart 10 suggests that extreme bullishness toward the yellow metal has not yet fully unwound. While the share price ratio has dropped back to its 200-day moving average, cyclical momentum remains elevated, as measured by the 52-week rate of change. Sentiment in the commodity pits is still elevated, flows into gold ETFs are still strong and net speculative positions have not yet made a full retreat (Chart 10), especially in view of the recent politically-motivated pop in market volatility. The implication is that there could be additional selling pressure in the coming weeks. Chart 9Cyclically Appealing, But... Chart 10... Still Tactically Frothy Chart 11The Currency Is Critical In terms of potential buy triggers, anything that causes the U.S. dollar to lose its bid is a strong candidate. Ironically, a Fed rate hike could produce such an outcome, contrary to popular wisdom. In our view, the U.S. (and global) economy cannot handle tighter financial conditions, and a rise in interest rates would need to be offset by a weaker currency. Gold shares perform well when economic expectations are faltering (Chart 11, shown inverted), and a hawkish Fed would likely raise global economic fears. On the flipside, a go-slow Fed could keep the currency bid. That would allow the economy more time to heal and recover, and possibly overheat, thereby potentially boosting future returns on capital, certainly relative to other countries where output gaps remain larger. Bottom Line: Stay neutral on gold stocks, but put them on upgrade alert in recognition that an upgrade back to overweight could occur sooner rather than later, i.e. by yearend, depending on macro dynamics. What To Do With Drug Stocks? A number of drug wholesalers reported earnings misses and provided disappointing guidance, specifically citing worse than expected generic pricing pressure, enough to offset ongoing branded drug price increases. In the current environment of political uncertainty toward health care companies, the knee jerk reaction has been to abandon all pharmaceutical-related equities, regardless of exposure to branded or generic medicines. Our pharmaceutical equity view has noted that the time to worry about the pace of drug price increases would be if they sparked a change in consumption patterns and/or buyer behavior. The fact that major buying groups such as health insurers and pharmacy benefit managers are balking at generic drug price increases constitutes such a shift. Consumer spending on drugs has slowed, albeit that has not been confirmed by neither strong retail drug store sales nor booming hospital employment (Chart 12). Nor is there an unwanted inventory build (Chart 12). Nevertheless, in light of new information, which implies that company-reported pricing pressure is worse than current government data shows, we are downgrading our outlook for drug-related shares. Still, rather than sell after the index has already taken a large hit, pushing relative performance to oversold and undervalued levels (Chart 12), we will await a more opportune moment to lighten positions, especially in view of our preference for defensive equities. Keep in mind that the drug price increases are still well in excess of the overall rate of inflation as branded drug prices continue to rise (Chart 13), and earnings stability should be increasingly desirable as the U.S. dollar climbs. In the meantime, drug-related shares are now on downgrade alert and the overall health care sector is off our high-conviction list. The good news is that other parts of the health care sector should benefit if drug inflation cools. For instance, a reduction in the rate of drug price increases, and in the case of generics, outright price cuts, is a blessing for the S&P managed care industry. Cost inflation had been perking up, but should ease in the coming quarters as drug expenses abate. Health insurance premiums are growing at a faster rate than overall inflation, while job growth remains decent (Chart 14), underscoring that top-line growth is still outpacing that of the overall corporate sector. If cost inflation eases while revenue climbs, the index should move to at least a market multiple from its current discounted valuation. Importantly, technical readings have improved. Chart 12Under The Gun... Chart 13... But Pricing Power Remains Strong Chart 14Celebrating Reduced Cost Inflation Cyclical momentum has begun to reaccelerate from neutral levels after unwinding overbought conditions (Chart 14), suggesting that a breakout to new relative performance highs is in the offing. Bottom Line: The pain in drug-related shares should provide a gain to health care insurers. Stay overweight the S&P managed care index. However, look to lighten the S&P pharmaceutical and biotech indexes on a relative performance bounce in the coming weeks, both are now on downgrade alert. Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor small over large caps and growth over value.
Dear Client, In addition to this week's regular Weekly Report, you should have also received a Client Note written by my colleague Marko Papic discussing the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Marko argues that the election is now too close to call. Donald Trump's resilience in the polls continues to baffle most observers. Not us. Back in September of 2015, when most pundits were laughing off Trump's chances, we wrote a report arguing that Trump's rhetoric would resonate with voters much more than most people thought possible. That report, entitled "Trumponomics: What Investors Need To Know," is as relevant today as it was back then. Best regards, Peter Berezin Highlights Spare capacity has narrowed substantially within the developed world. Most of the decline in spare capacity is attributable to lackluster supply, rather than stronger demand. Potential GDP growth is likely to remain weak over the coming years. Narrowing output gaps will put upward pressure on inflation. We are long Japanese and German inflation protection. As spare capacity continues to dwindle, forward guidance will become a more effective tool for central banks. At least in this respect, central bankers may find themselves with a few more bullets in their arsenals. Stay long the dollar and position for gradually higher government bond yields. Global equities are highly vulnerable to a near-term correction, owing to a more hawkish Fed and growing U.S. election uncertainty. Once the dust has settled, European and Japanese stocks will outperform their U.S. peers. Feature Spare Capacity Is Dwindling A persistent shortfall of aggregate demand has been the defining feature of the global economic landscape ever since the financial crisis erupted. This chronic lack of spending has kept inflation below target in most developed economies, forcing central banks to adopt ever more radical easing policies. That is starting to change. Spare capacity continues to decline, allowing once dormant supply-side constraints to reimpose themselves. In this week's report, we take stock of where we are in this process. Mind The (Output) Gap The simplest measure of spare capacity is the so-called output gap, which estimates the difference between what economies are actually producing and what they are capable of producing without putting undue upward pressure on inflation. According to the IMF, the output gap for advanced economies has narrowed from a high of 3.8% of GDP in 2009 to 0.8% at present. The OECD's measure shows a similar decline (Chart 1). Chart 1AOutput Gaps Have Narrowed Chart 1BOutput Gaps Have Narrowed The IMF reckons that the output gap has nearly closed in the U.S. and the U.K. The Fund estimates that Japan's output gap currently stands at 1.5% of GDP. The OECD also sees the U.K. output gap as being fully closed. However, it calculates a smaller output gap for Japan but a larger output gap for the U.S. than the IMF does. Both institutions peg the euro area's output gap at around 1%-to- 1.5%. Not surprisingly, there is a fair bit of variation within continental Europe. The output gap in Germany has fully disappeared, but still stands at 2%-to-3% of GDP in Italy and Spain. Naturally, one should take these numbers with a grain of salt. Output gaps are notoriously difficult to calculate and are subject to large revisions. The OECD, for example, tends to rely on statistical approaches to estimate output gaps.1 These typically involve employing tools such as the so-called "Hodrick-Prescott filter" to smooth out historical GDP data and then treating the resulting trendline as an estimate for potential GDP. Such methods have their uses, but they can go badly awry in situations where GDP is slow to return to its "true" underlying trend. This is a particular worry in the current environment, considering that recoveries following burst asset bubbles tend to be lethargic even in the best of times. The fact that fiscal policy has been fairly tight and monetary policy has been constrained by the zero lower bound has further dampened the recovery. With that in mind, rather than relying on purely statistical techniques, it is useful to measure spare capacity directly. We do this by gauging the extent to which the existing factors of production - labor and capital - are being effectively deployed across the major developed economies. As we argue below, this approach suggests that slack may be modestly higher in Japan than what the IMF and the OECD calculate, and more meaningfully understated in peripheral Europe. The Message From Headline Unemployment Rates Unemployment has been falling in almost all major developed economies (Chart 2). In the U.S. and the U.K., the jobless rate is back to pre-crisis levels. In Germany and Japan, it is below where it was before the Great Recession. As such, it is unlikely that unemployment can decline much in these economies. Chart 2AUnemployment Rates Have Declined Chart 2BUnemployment Rates Have Declined In contrast, while unemployment rates in peripheral Europe have been trending lower over the past three years, they are still quite high by historical standards. There is some debate over whether they can fall much further. The OECD, for example, contends that Spain is already close to full employment, even though the country's unemployment rate still stands at nearly 20%. We find this implausible. The OECD essentially takes a moving average to calculate structural unemployment rates in various economies. As noted above, this can be highly misleading in circumstances where the forces pushing an economy towards full employment are impaired. In general, this suggests that both the IMF and the OECD estimates of labor market slack in the euro area are too low. This is consistent with a recent ECB research paper, which calculated that the euro area's output gap was 6% of GDP in 2015, a far cry from the European Commission's estimate of 1.1%.2 Disguised Unemployment The unemployment rate is probably the single best measure of labor market slack. However, it can understate the true amount of spare capacity during periods when many people have stopped looking for work, or when those who are employed are not working as much or as intensively as they would like. The nature of this additional labor market slack differs from region to region. In the U.S., it has mainly manifested itself in lower labor force participation rates; whereas in Europe - perhaps in keeping with the more egalitarian nature of European society - it has mainly taken the form of fewer hours worked and a higher incidence of involuntary part-time employment. Chart 3 shows that labor force participation rates among prime-age workers (those between the ages of 25-and-54) in Europe are generally higher now than they were before the financial crisis. In contrast, the share of workers who have part-time jobs but desire full-time employment remains elevated across most of continental Europe (Chart 4). The average annual number of hours worked per employee has also declined in most European economies (Chart 5). Chart 3ALabor Force Participation Rate ##br##Has Risen In Europe, But Fallen In The U.S. Chart 3BLabor Force Participation Rate ##br##Has Risen In Europe, But Fallen In The U.S. Chart 4AEurope: Higher Incidence Of ##br##Involuntary Part-Time Employment Chart 4BEurope: Higher Incidence ##br##Of Involuntary Part-Time Employment In the U.S., the prime-age labor force participation rate is still 1.9 points lower than it was in 2007. Part of this is cyclical. As long as the labor market continues to improve, participation rates among prime-age workers should continue to recover. That's the good news. The bad news is that ongoing structural forces are likely to prevent the participation rate from returning back to its pre-crisis levels. Chart 6 shows that labor force participation rates among U.S. prime-aged males has been trending lower since the 1960s. The decline has been particularly acute among less-educated workers. Why this has happened remains a source of intense debate. Conservative commentators have argued that cultural shifts have reduced the social pressure on men to maintain gainful employment. Liberal commentators have contended that falling real wages at the lower end of the skill distribution have reduced the incentive to work. Whatever the reason, it will be difficult to boost labor participation substantially from current levels. At present, 11% of U.S. prime-aged nonparticipants report wanting a job, only modestly higher than before the recession (Chart 7). It is possible that some fraction of those who do not want to work will change their minds - indeed, this year has seen a modest inflow of "disabled" people back into the labor force. Realistically, however, this is unlikely to boost labor participation by more than one percentage point. Chart 5Hours Worked ##br##In Europe Have Declined Chart 6U.S.: The Less Educated ##br##Are Shunning The Labor Force Chart 7U.S.: Fewer Potential Workers ##br##On The Sidelines Chart 8Japan's Underutilized Labor Force The incidence of involuntary part-time employment in Japan has returned to where it was prior to the Great Recession. However, in absolute terms, it remains quite high - in fact, nearly as high as in Europe. Japanese full-time employees may also not be as productively engaged as they could be. As evidence, note that output-per-hour in Japan is 37% lower than in the U.S. and 33% lower than in Germany (Chart 8). From this we conclude that there is somewhat more labor market slack in Japan than the headline unemployment rate suggests. Industrial Capacity Utilization Goods-producing sectors typically account for less than a third of GDP in most advanced economies. Nevertheless, because the demand for goods tends to be more volatile than the demand for services, fluctuations in industrial production often account for the bulk of the changes in output gaps. As Chart 9 shows, after a brisk recovery following the financial crisis, the U.S. industrial capacity utilization rate has been trending lower for the past two years. It currently stands at 75.4%, 5.6 percentage points lower than at its pre-recession peak. The Institute for Supply Management's semi-annual capacity utilization survey also suggests that many U.S. manufacturing businesses are operating substantially below potential (Chart 10). Much of the deterioration in U.S. industrial utilization reflects the effects of the energy bust and a stronger dollar. Business capex has decelerated sharply as a consequence of these forces, falling by over two-thirds in the case of energy capex. This should cut into excess capacity. Chart 9U.S.: Industrial Capacity ##br##Utilization Remains Low Chart 10U.S.: Less Slack In Services ##br##Than Manufacturing The dearth of new investment elsewhere in the world should also help prop up utilization rates (Chart 11). Industrial utilization is close to its historic average in Europe. Unlike in the case of labor markets, there is not a lot of regional variation in capacity utilization rates across the euro area. If anything, Italian spare capacity is actually closer to its pre-recession level than Germany's. Chart 11AEurope: Idle Industrial Capacity Is Shrinking Chart 11BEurope: Idle Industrial Capacity Is Shrinking Chart 12Excess Capacity Has Declined In Japan Capacity utilization has also returned to its long-term trend in Japan. Encouragingly, the Tankan Factor Utilization Index has risen to its highest level since the early 1990s (Chart 12). Nevertheless, the strong yen is starting to put pressure on Japan's industrial sector. This suggests that further monetary easing from the BoJ will be necessary. Economic And Investment Implications Our analysis suggests that spare capacity has narrowed substantially within the developed world, although for some countries not quite as much as output gap estimates from the IMF and the OECD indicate (particularly in the case of peripheral Europe). Unfortunately, most of the decline in spare capacity is attributable to lackluster supply, rather than faster demand growth (Chart 13). Interestingly, a cyclically-induced withdrawal of workers from the labor market has only played a modest role in explaining the slowdown in potential GDP growth and the resulting decline in output gaps. Instead, most of the deceleration in potential GDP growth stems from lower productivity gains. Chart 13AWeak Supply Growth Has Narrowed Output Gaps Chart 13BWeak Supply Growth Has Narrowed Output Gaps Some of the decline in productivity growth reflects cyclical factors, especially weak business investment. However, as we have discussed in past reports, much of it reflects structural forces such as declining educational achievement and a shift in focus of internet innovation away from business productivity applications towards consumer services such as social media.3 Looking out, narrowing output gaps will put upward pressure on inflation. We are long Japanese and German inflation protection via the CPI swap market. Governor Kuroda has made it clear that he wants Japanese inflation to rise above 2% to make up for the fact that inflation has perpetually undershot the BoJ's target. The Bundesbank may not want higher inflation, but the ECB's need to reflate Southern Europe all but guarantees such an outcome. As spare capacity continues to dwindle, forward guidance will become a more effective tool for central banks. The essence of forward guidance is the commitment to keeping monetary policy ultra loose even when the economy begins to overheat. If people believe that the central bank will keep the punch bowl filled, this could cause long-term inflation expectations to rise, leading to lower real yields and increased spending today. Such a commitment is likely to be regarded as more credible if people expect it to be carried out over the next few years, rather than at some distant point in the future. The Bank of Japan has already moved in that direction with its pledge to engineer an inflation overshoot by keeping the 10-year JGB yield anchored at zero. Chart 14China: On The Mend, Cyclically The U.S. has the smallest output gap, but the highest neutral interest rate, among the major developed economies. This week's FOMC statement strongly hinted at a December rate hike. As we discussed two weeks ago, in addition to one hike this year, we expect the FOMC to hike rates twice next year.4 This should cause the real broad trade-weighted dollar to appreciate by 10% over the next 12 months. A stronger dollar will mitigate some of the upward pressure on U.S. bond yields. Nevertheless, as slack continues to erode and inflation shifts higher, Treasury yields, along with bond yields elsewhere, should continue trending higher. Global equities are currently highly vulnerable to a near-term correction, owing to a more hawkish Fed and growing U.S. election uncertainty. We are currently short the NASDAQ 100 futures as a hedge, a trade that has gained 3.1% since we initiated it. Once the dust has settled, European and Japanese stocks will outperform their U.S. peers. This is partly because U.S. stocks are relatively expensive, but it is also because an ascending dollar will hurt U.S. multinationals. Investors should overweight Japanese and European stocks on a currency-hedged basis within the developed market universe. The outlook for emerging markets is mixed. On the one hand, the recent uptick in Chinese growth - as evidenced by this week's better-than-expected PMI data (Chart 14) - should provide some support to commodity prices and EM assets. On the other hand, a stronger dollar will weigh on commodities, while making it more onerous for some emerging market companies to refinance their dollar-denominated loans. Higher U.S. rates could also reduce the global pool of dollar liquidity, making it difficult for some emerging markets to finance their current account deficits. On balance, a modestly underweight stance towards EM assets is warranted. Peter Berezin, Senior Vice President Global Investment Strategy peterb@bcaresearch.com 1 The IMF uses a more ad hoc approach. Desk economists have significant leeway in how they estimate output gaps for their respective economies. Most economists rely on statistical models and production function calculations, intermixed with educated guesswork. 2 Marek Jarocinski, and Michele Lenza, "How Large Is The Output Gap In The Euro Area," ECB Research Bulletin 2016, July 1, 2016. 3 Please see Global Investment Strategy Special Report, "Slower Potential Growth: Causes And Consequences," dated May 29, 2015; and Special Report, "Weak Productivity Growth: Don't Blame The Statisticians," dated March 25, 2016, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. 4 Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, "Better U.S. Economic Data Will Cause The Dollar To Strengthen," dated October 14, 2016, available at gis.bcaresearch.com. Strategy & Market Trends* Tactical Trades Strategic Recommendations Closed Trades
The relative performance of media stocks over the past few months would seem to foretell of a downturn in cash flow prospects. However, the opposite is true. The latest consumer spending data showed that outlays on media products and services are accelerating, both in absolute terms and relative to total consumption. In turn, that is driving up media pricing power, to growth rates not seen in more than a decade. Media pricing power often leads relative sales growth expectations, pointing to a re-rating ahead. Importantly, media productivity is also on the upswing, as proxied by sales-to-employment, which leads momentum in relative forward profit estimates. The implication is that the budding recovery in the share price ratio is likely to gain traction. Stay overweight.
Financial stocks have risen in sympathy with the back up in global bond yields, but that likely represents position squaring more so than a sustained shift into the sector. Financial profits will continue to be challenged by a downturn in the credit cycle, both in terms of quality and loan creation, given the negative global credit impulse and flattening yield curve (shown inverted and advanced, bottom panel). Importantly, productivity is waning. Financial sector employment is probing new highs, reflecting a more onerous cost structure required to meet regulatory obligations. Employment is now growing faster than sales (third panel), a reliable indication of flagging productivity. The implication is that financial sector profits will continue to lag those of the broad market. We continue to view cheap financial sector valuations as a trap, and recommend below benchmark positions.
Highlights Chile's economy is headed for recession. Facing strong external and domestic headwinds, any policy stimulus will be too late to prevent the impending contraction in economic activity. Investors should receive 3-year interest swaps and stay short CLP / long USD. South Africa's cyclical and structural outlook remains bleak. Banks have been selling foreign assets and repatriating capital which has helped the rand to appreciate. However, as this capital repatriation tapers, the rand will enter a renewed bear market. Stay short the rand versus the U.S. dollar and long MXN / short ZAR. Feature Chile: Stimulus Will Arrive Too Late To Prevent Recession Chart I-1Chile: From Stagflation To Recession? The stagflationary environment in Chile over the past two years - a combination of sluggish growth and high inflation - will give way to outright recession (Chart I-1). As economic activity downshifts further, we are doubtful that policymakers will be able to push through stimulus measures in time, and of sufficient size, to stave off recession. On the fiscal front, the government is unlikely to preemptively engage in a significant spending push. The deceleration in economic activity will soon translate into lower fiscal revenue at a time when the fiscal deficit is already quite wide, at 2.8% of GDP. Furthermore, a renewed fall in copper prices (more on this below) means mining revenue will also be weaker than currently expected, inflicting substantial damage on the government's budget. Meanwhile, monetary policy is unlikely to become stimulative in the near term. Having concluded a two-year battle to tame sticky core inflation, the central bank is unlikely cut interest rates too fast. Besides, as the current term of Central Bank President Rodrigo Vergara ends in December, chances of a new rate cut cycle before he is replaced are low. On the whole, the lack of imminent policy stimulus means economic growth is set to fall much further. Investors can profit by receiving 3-year swap rates (Chart I-2). Although the central bank will be late to cut rates, long-term interest rates will fall because Chilean growth is facing strong headwinds on several fronts: Copper prices have failed to rally amid the reflation trade of the past nine months, and are set to drop to new lows as Chinese property construction and demand for industrial metals contracts anew (Chart I-3). As a result, copper exports will continue to act as a serious drag on Chilean growth (Chart I-4). Chart I-2Receive 3-Year Interest ##br##Rate Swaps In Chile Chart I-3China's Industrial Metals ##br##Demand To Contract Chart I-4Exports Will Remain ##br##A Drag On Growth Capital expenditures will contract, partially due to very downbeat business confidence owing to the uncertain political environment created by the government's reforms agenda since 2014 (Chart I-5, top panel). As discussed in detail in our December 2014 Special Report on Chile,1 from a big-picture perspective, these reforms have shifted the structure of the economy toward higher government expenditures at the expense of the private sector. This has severely eroded business confidence. In addition, the downturn in the housing market will gain momentum, further depressing activity (Chart I-5, bottom panel). Meanwhile, employment growth has been weak and income growth has been decelerating steadily - and we foresee further downside ahead (Chart I-6). Importantly, the economy's credit impulse is now turning negative (Chart I-7). Higher delinquencies in turn will force banks to curtail lending going forward. Chart I-5Chile: Capex To Remain Weak Chart I-6Chile: Labor Market Will Weaken Further Chart I-7Negative Credit Impulse##br## Will Weigh On Growth Finally, narrow (M1) money supply growth, a very good leading indicator for economic activity, is now decelerating sharply (Chart I-8). Consistently, our marginal propensity to consume proxy points to weak spending and lower consumer price inflation (Chart I-9). Chart I-8Chile: Narrow Money Growth, ##br##Economic Activity And Inflation Chart I-9Consumption Is Set ##br##To Decelerate Further The economy has developed considerable downward momentum. Any policy stimulus is likely to come too late to prevent the economy from falling into recession. Therefore, local interest rates in Chile are headed to new lows. An economic recession and lower copper prices are clearly bearish for the Chilean peso, and we maintain that its 8.5% rally this year versus the U.S. dollar will be followed by new lows (Chart I-10). Turning to equities, lower interest rates will help only marginally as equity valuations are not cheap (Chart I-11). Moreover, as Chilean banks account for 20% of the MSCI market cap and, while they are better run and more conservative than many others in the EM, they are not immune to a decelerating credit and business cycle. Besides, this bourse's Latin American consumer plays will also likely disappoint. As such, dedicated EM investors should stay neutral on Chilean stocks relative to the EM equity benchmark (Chart I-12). Chart I-10Chilean Peso Valuation Chart I-11Chilean Equities Are At Fair Value Chart I-12Chilean Equities: Stay ##br##Neutral Relative To EM Benchmark Lastly, as highlighted in our recent in-depth Special Report on EM corporate credit,2 credit investors should stay long Chilean and Russian corporate debt versus China. Chilean corporate credit will likely outperform Chinese corporate credit, as the latter is more frothy - overbought and expensive. Bottom Line: The Chilean economy is heading into recession, and policymakers will be late with stimulus to prevent it. Fixed-income investors should receive 3-year interest rate swaps. Dedicated EM equity investors should maintain a neutral stance on the Chilean bourse versus the EM equity benchmark. Stay short CLP / long USD. Santiago E. Gomez Associate Vice President santiago@bcaresearch.com South Africa: Flows Versus Fundamentals Chart II-1Improving Trade Has Helped The ZAR The South African rand has rallied since the start of the year on the back of an improving trade balance (Chart II-1) and strong capital inflows. However, it is facing a key technical resistance level, as are many other EM assets. We expect these resistance levels to hold for EM risk assets in general and the South African rand in particular. The underlying reasons behind our outlook center around our expectations of a stronger U.S. dollar, rising U.S. and G7 bond yields and a relapse in commodities prices. This is in addition to a lack of cyclical recovery and poor structural fundamentals in South Africa. A well-known explanation as to how South Africa has been able to finance its wide current account deficit is that there have been strong foreign portfolio inflows stemming from the global search for yield. What is less known is that South African banks have in the past year been selling foreign assets and repatriating capital back into South Africa (Chart II-2). Over the past 12 months, this repatriation of capital has amounted to US$ 6.5 billion, which effectively allowed the country to fund 50% of its current account deficit. While there is no doubt that this repatriation of capital has aided the rally in the rand and domestic bonds, it remains to be seen whether these flows will continue. Our suspicion is that with South African banks' holdings of foreign bonds dropping from US$ 18 billion in December 2015 to US$ 12 billion at the end of June 2016, and G7 bond yields rising, the speed of capital repatriation will likely slow. In the meantime, fundamentals in South Africa remain weak: The household sector, which accounts for 60% of GDP, has been sluggish. Private consumption growth has been anemic and credit growth to households has been falling rapidly (Chart II-3). Chart II-2South Africa: Banks Have Been ##br##Repatriating Capital Enormously Chart II-3South African ##br##Consumption Is Anemic The corporate sector is not painting a reassuring picture either. South African firms are not investing; real gross fixed capital formation is contracting (Chart II-4, top panel) and business confidence is at an all-time low (Chart II-4, bottom panel). The ongoing dynamic of persistently high wage growth - despite negative productivity growth - only reinforces the gloomy outlook as it creates downward pressure on corporate profit margins, or upward pressure on inflation (Chart II-5). Chart II-4Contracting Capex And ##br##Record-Low Business Confidence Chart II-5Toxic Structural Dynamics: Contracting ##br##Productivity And High Wage Growth Along with renewed weakness in the rand, higher wage growth will raise interest rate expectations. The fixed-income market is currently discounting no policy rate hikes during the next 12 months making it vulnerable to potential depreciation in the rand. In addition to a poor economic backdrop, uncertainty regarding economic policy is considerable. Chart II-6South Africa's Central ##br##Bank's Liquidity Injections First, fiscal policy will not be market friendly. The poor performance of the ANC in the last municipal elections shows the ANC is clearly losing support from the population. This will lead President Zuma and ANC to adopt even more populist policies. This is bearish for both the fiscal accounts and the structural growth outlook. As such, this will cap the upside in the rand and put a floor under domestic bond yields. Second, the central bank will not defend the exchange rate if the latter comes under selling pressure anew. In fact, monetary policy remains somewhat unorthodox. Specifically, the Reserve Bank of South Africa continues to inject liquidity into the system to cap interbank rates (Chart II-6). This will facilitate ZAR depreciation. Investment Conclusions Stay short the rand versus the U.S. dollar. Three weeks ago we also initiated a long MXN / short ZAR trade, and this trade remains intact as the MXN is oversold and the ZAR is overbought. Dedicated EM equity investors should maintain a neutral allocation to South African stocks. On the back of a fragile and deteriorating consumer sector, we recommend staying short general retailer stocks. Their share prices seem to be breaking down despite the rebound in the rand and a drop in domestic bond yields (Chart II-7). Policy uncertainty and pressure for populist policies is still an overarching issue for South Africa, especially compared to Russia. As such we suggest fixed income investors continue to underweight South African sovereign credit within the EM sovereign credit universe (Chart II-8), and maintain the relative trade of being long South African CDS / short Russian CDS. Chart II-7Stay Short South ##br##African General Retailers Chart II-8Stay Underweight South ##br##African Credit And Short Rand Stephan Gabillard, Research Analyst stephang@bcaresearch.com 1 Please refer to the Emerging Markets Strategy & Geopolitical Strategy Special Report titled, "Chile: A New Economic Model?," dated December 3, 2014 available at ems.bcaresearch.com 2 Please refer to the Emerging Markets Strategy Special Report titled, "EM Corporate Health Is Flashing Red," dated September 14, 2016. Equity Recommendations Fixed-Income, Credit And Currency Recommendations