Economy

For The Fed, The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.

2 years ago

CoreMacroFICC

An Update On The Hong Kong Dollar Peg

Special Report

In this Special Report, we update our thinking on the Hong Kong SAR dollar peg, with implications for domestic asset markets.

2 years ago

China

Portfolio

Monthly Portfolio Update: Waiting For The Recession

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

2 years ago

CoreMacro

MacroQuant Model Update: The Party Is Winding Down

Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.

2 years ago

Essentials

Decelerating ECI Consistent With Easing Price Pressures

The US Employment Cost Index for Q4 delivered a positive signal that the disinflation process is intact. The ECI’s slowdown from 1.1% q/q to 0.9% q/q came in softer than anticipations of 1.0% q/q. This marks the slowest pace of quarterly increase since 2021Q2…

2 years ago

Essentials

Powell Pushes Back Against March Rate Cut

As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary policy. Specifically, the…

2 years ago

Essentials

Sluggish Economic Conditions Persist In China

China’s official NBS PMI indicates that growth conditions remain sluggish. Although the composite index ticked up from 50.3 to 50.9, it is still barely in expansionary territory. Notably, the manufacturing PMI – which inched up by 0.2 points in January –…

2 years ago

Essentials

Tight Credit Spreads Offer Inadequate Protection

The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service argue that credit…

2 years ago

Essentials

NOK And The Inflation Problem For Norway

According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service investors should remain long NOK/SEK. The Norges Bank kept policy on hold last week, but the bullish case for the NOK (albeit over the short term) remains in place. There were no major changes from…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

2 years ago

Economy

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