Economy
Our colleagues from the Emerging Markets Strategy team argue that investors should brace for a significant correction in Indian stocks in the coming months. They posit that the pillar of Indian corporations' sustained profit growth — surging revenues — is…
Our US Investment Strategy colleagues have kept a close eye on excess savings and their disposition since the CARES Act funds began to flow in the spring of 2020. Their conviction that the consensus failed to recognize the consumption potential inherent in…
Participants in the Philly Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) assign a 26% probability to a contraction in US real GDP four quarters from now, down from their 44% peak probability in 2022. The unwieldy contraction-in-four-quarters wording makes…
Japanese wage growth fell below expectations in May, expanding by 1.9% y/y versus consensus estimates calling for a 2.1% y/y increase. Although this marks an acceleration from April’s 1.6% y/y, that figure was revised down meaningfully from 2.1% y/y.…
The Chinese currency has been under considerable depreciation pressure due to capital outflows. Additionally, the economy is grappling with debt deflation and a balance sheet recession, conditions that typically call for lower interest rates and a weaker…
Second-quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off before the open on Friday, when Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) report their results for the June 30 quarter. Bank of America (BAC), the other commercial banking behemoth, will round…
We expect continued softening in the US economy will lead to decelerating wage growth, muffling the principal consumption driver. Because the US has been the foremost catalyst for global growth in this cycle, a US recession will eventually morph into a global…
At first glance, France has moved to the far left. However, this coalition is fragile, and Macron’s allies still hold the balance of power. What are the assets that will benefit from this new political setup, and those that will not?
Although we ticked a second box on our checklist, the incoming data still do not indicate that a recession is imminent. We remain tactically equal weight equities with a strong bias to underweight them, but we’re not exiting the party just yet.
June nonfarm payrolls expanded by 206,000 workers, topping the 190,000 consensus expectation, but downward revisions of 111,000 jobs in April and May pulled the three-month moving average down to 177 thousand, its lowest level since January 2021. The…