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Developed Countries

CoreMacro
Introducing Our European Earnings Models

We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.

Jeremie Peloso
3 years ago
FICC
Is The RBA Done For This Cycle?
Special Report

In this Special Report, we evaluate future prospects for the Australian dollar and Australian government bonds. The currency remains fundamentally cheap, and positioning is very short, but the AUD will continue to underperform in the near-term due to sluggish global growth. Australian government bonds have had a nice run of outperformance over the past year, but it is now time to take profits with given the uncertainty that the RBA will deliver the rate cuts currently discounted.

Chester Ntonifor
3 years ago
Essentials
US Retail Sales Disappoint
US retail sales delivered a negative signal about consumer demand in March. Overall retail sales fell by the most since November, with the 1% m/m drop coming in below expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline following February’s 0.2% m/m decrease. The monthly…
3 years ago
Essentials
US Consumer Inflation Expectations Reaccelerate
Data released over the past week show a resurgence in short-term US consumer inflation expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Survey’s measure of year-ahead expectations jumped by 1 percentage point to a 5-month high of 4.6% in April. Similarly,…
3 years ago
Essentials
Equity Sector Performance Following A Pivot To Easing
“Bad news is good news” has emerged as the dominant market narrative over the past month. The early-March bank turmoil caused investors to raise their expectations of a Fed pivot to cutting interest rates in H2 in response to a deteriorating economic outlook.…
3 years ago
Essentials
Evidence in Support of the Kinked Phillips Curve
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, if we really are on the steep side of the aggregate supply curve, then falling demand will largely drive down inflation without driving down employment. Many investors and market commentators are…
3 years ago
Essentials
US Wage Growth Reaccelerates
The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker reaccelerated in March, contradicting the signal from Average Hourly Earnings. The former rose from 6.1% to 6.4% (albeit below the 2022 peak of 6.7%) as the latter eased from 4.6% to 4.2%. Notably, service-sector wage…
3 years ago
Equities
Will Cathie Wood's Ark Funds Outperform?

Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to these themes to bolster long-term returns.

Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
3 years ago
AI
Essentials
Too Many Cuts Priced For 2023
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the US economy will be strong enough to avoid rate cuts in 2023. As such, the 49 bps of rate cuts priced in for 2023 are misplaced. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting contained a few interesting…
3 years ago
Essentials
The Shelter Disinflation Has Begun
The US core consumer price index grew 0.38% in March, down from 0.45% in February and the lowest monthly print since November. The year-over-year core inflation rate is still a worryingly high 5.60%, but there is mounting evidence that a downtrend has begun.…
3 years ago

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