Highlights The US Climate Prediction Center gives ~ 70% odds another La Niña will form in the August – October interval and will continue through winter 2021-22. This will be a second-year La Niña if it forms, and…
Highlights The decline in the US and UK July services PMIs underscores that pandemic control measures are not the only manner by which COVID-19 impacts the services sector of the economy. A slowdown in Q3 growth in advanced economies…
UK retail sales surprised to the downside in July. The headline number fell 2.5% m/m versus an anticipated 0.2% increase. Sales excluding auto fuel also disappointed, dropping 2.4% m/m. Two factors are likely behind this…
Highlights US Treasuries: US Treasury yields are rising once again, in response to typical drivers – less dovish Fed commentary and upside growth surprises. The spread of the Delta variant in the US represents a potential near-…
The Bank of England (BoE) left its policy settings unchanged yesterday, but did provide strong indications that some removal of monetary accommodation would soon be necessary. The central bank noted that the UK economy was…
Highlights The rapid spread of the COVID-19 delta variant in Asia will re-focus precious metals markets anew on the possibility of another round of lockdowns and the implications for demand, particularly in Greater China and India,…
Highlights Recent progress on the path to a post-pandemic state and the return to pre-COVID economic conditions has been mixed. The share of vaccinated individuals continues to rise globally, and the number of confirmed UK cases has…
Stock markets rebounded on Tuesday after a meaningful Monday selloff, which was driven by concerns that the delta variant of COVID-19 may delay the transition to a post-pandemic world. The chart above presents the optimistic…
Highlights Global oil demand will remain betwixt and between recovery and relapse through 3Q21, as stronger DM consumer spending and increasing mobility wrestles with persistent concerns over COVID-19-induced lockdowns in Latin America…