Highlights Continued upgrades to global economic growth – most recently by the IMF this week –will support higher natgas prices. In our estimation, gas for delivery at Henry Hub, LA, in the coming withdrawal season (…
Chart 1Turkey: Deluge Of Money Turkish financial assets and specifically the lira will continue selling off because authorities have once again abandoned the tentative shift toward orthodox macro policies. Over the weekend,…
As we expected last November, Turkey’s shift to economic orthodoxy ended up being a case of smoke and mirrors. Four months and a cumulative 875 basis points of interest rate hikes later, Naci Agbal’s policy has proven…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the Turkish financial markets are currently in a sweet spot, but a long-lasting rally in the Turkish lira is unlikely. In the near term, this advantageous…
Chart 1Turkish Lira: A Long Lasting Breakout? Turkish financial markets are currently in a sweet spot, but a long-lasting rally in the Turkish lira is unlikely. In the near term, the nation’s financial markets will likely…
Chart 1Turkish Lira Versus US Dollar: Total Return Performance The firing of central bank governor Murat Uysal and the resignation of finance minister Berat Albayrak over the weekend has raised the issue as to whether Turkey is…
This past weekend was an eventful one in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan fired central bank governor Murat Uysal on Saturday, replacing him with former finance minister and trusted ally Naci Agbal. The following day,…
The collapse in the Turkish lira once again accelerated. Some of the weakness reflects a potential Biden presidency, which would result in a marked deterioration of the relationship between the two countries. Moreover, the…
Highlights Senate Republicans would be suicidal not to agree to a fiscal relief bill before the election. Democrats are still offering a $2.2 trillion package. Grassroots Republican voters will forgive Republicans for blowing out the…
Even after the recent selloff in the TRY, BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service remains negative on Turkish stocks, local currency bonds and credit markets relative to their EM counterparts. Turkey is facing…