Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y –…
China’s slowdown confirms BCA’s Geopolitical Strategists’ view that persisting structural challenges would cause China’s economic reopening to disappoint (see The Numbers). In this context, Canada and…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service uses three simple rules when trading the dollar over a medium-term horizon (12-18 months). What could the macro outlook look like? What is happening to valuations? And where…
In this short weekly report, we review some of the most common questions clients asked us in the last few weeks.
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended an underweight stance for Indonesian equities in EM portfolios. The team is also bearish on the rupiah. An unprecedented trade surplus recently gave Indonesia…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy’s Reflation Confirming Indicator has been gapping down, signaling a material rebound in the broad trade-weighted US dollar. The broad trade-weighted US dollar is a counter-cyclical currency…
Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?
Industrial metals have been rallying in recent weeks. The London Metals Exchange Metals Index (LMEX) – a weighted index that captures the price movement of primary aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead, copper, and tin – has…
Taiwanese export orders continue to signal that global manufacturing conditions remain weak. Orders declined by -17.6% y/y in May – albeit not as bad as the -21.3% y/y drop anticipated. The product breakdown reveals that…
China is facing a risk of deflation. Marginal interest rate cuts and targeted stimulus will be insufficient to boost China’s growth given the current deflationary mindset and the danger is that the economy may be entering a liquidity…