Highlights Just when it looked like the agricultural complex was starting to perk up, it was slapped down again. After crawling its way back from a mid-2018 crash – retracing more than half of its decline – the CCI Grains…
Highlights The odds of a continued earnings contraction have not yet fallen to the point that would warrant an overweight stance towards Chinese versus global stocks over the coming 6-12 months. While we maintain Chinese stocks on…
Highlights Global equities will remain rangebound for the next month or so, but should move decisively higher as economic green shoots emerge in the spring. A revival in global growth will cause the recent rally in the U.S. dollar to…
Highlights So What? The late-cycle rally still faces non-trivial political hurdles. Why? U.S.-China trade talks, the U.S. threat of tariffs on auto imports, and Brexit continue to pose risks. A shocking revelation from the…
Last year, despite weak domestic activity and slowing global trade, Chinese exports remained very strong, even growing at a 19% annual rate in October. BCA’s China Investment Strategy service argues that this reflected…
A spike in new credit is the single most important criterion in our “Checklist For A Stimulus Overshoot.” From a policy perspective, we are now at higher risk of an overshoot. Both informal lending and overall credit…