Taiwan

Highlights The tech sector faces mounting domestic political and geopolitical risks. We fully expected stimulus hiccups but believe they will give way to large new fiscal support, given that COVID-19 is weighing on consumer confidence. Europe’s relative political stability is a good basis for…

Highlights The decade-long US equity market outperformance versus the rest of the world could be nearing its end. We are upgrading EM stocks from underweight to neutral within a global equity portfolio. We reiterate the change in our US dollar outlook from bullish to bearish. The…

Highlights Incoming economic data suggests that China’s economy is in the process of bottoming, but also that the intensity of a recovery is likely to be more muted than it has been during past economic cycles. Recent Chinese equity market performance is consistent with a bottoming in the…

Dear Client, Over the past two weeks, I have been in Asia visiting BCA’s clients. Next week’s Report, on November 20 will be a recap of my observations from the road. This week we are sending you a Special Report on global semiconductor stock performance published by our Emerging Markets…

Highlights Since early this year, global semiconductor stock prices have been front-running a demand recovery that has not yet begun. There is strong industry optimism surrounding a potential demand boost for semiconductors from the rollout of 5G networks and phones in 2020. Yet we expect…

  Highlights While the Caixin PMI is pointing to improving economic conditions, other data series still reflect weak growth. China’s business cycle is likely to bottom in Q1 of next year, rather than in Q4. The failure of Chinese stocks to significantly outperform the global benchmark…

Highlights Chinese economic growth slowed in June & July, but at a more moderate pace than had been the case earlier this year. The housing market is a notable exception, which appeared in June to slow in a broad-based fashion. The near-term (0-3 month) outlook is bearish for China-related…