The US ISM Manufacturing PMI delivered a disappointing update on factory activity in October. The headline index unexpectedly fell to 46.7, surprising consensus estimates it would remain unchanged at 49.0. In particular, a sharp…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, 2012 provides a tentative roadmap of the next Eurozone manufacturing cycle. The resemblance between today and 2012 is uncanny. The overlap matches the…
The Eurozone's October inflation release confirmed the signal from the German and Spanish reports that price pressures are moderating. CPI inflation softened from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y (below expectations of 3.1% y/y) while…
The Bank of Japan adjusted the language of its Monetary Policy Statement on Tuesday to indicate that it will allow greater flexibility it its yield curve control policy (YCC). It indicated that although the target level of 10-…
Tuesday’s China PMI release delivered a negative update on economic activity in October. The NBS’ Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 to 49.5 while the Non-manufacturing PMI declined from 51.7 to 50.6. Both measures fell…
The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half…
China's industrial profits delivered a positive signal over the past couple months. Total profits expanded on a year-on-year basis in both August (+17.2% y/y) and September (+11.9% y/y). Rebounding industrial profits is…
Eurozone economic data sent a positive signal on Monday. Preliminary CPI releases from Germany and Spain show price pressures continue to moderate. In Germany, the harmonized index declined by 0.2% m/m while the annual rate of…
The US PCE report confirmed the signal from Thursday's preliminary GDP release that consumer spending was resilient in Q3. Although personal income growth unexpectedly slowed, both nominal and real spending growth…
