The DXY collapsed to a 2 ½ month low on Tuesday following the softer than anticipated CPI inflation release which prompted investors to bring forward their Fed rate cut expectations (see The Numbers). This marks an…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment continues to send an optimistic signal. German sentiment jumped from -1.1 to +9.8 in November – its highest level since March and beating expectations of a smaller improvement to 5.0.…
To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the…
US Treasury yields fell sharply following yesterday’s soft October CPI report, and investors have now officially priced out all remaining rate hikes from the yield curve. In fact, the fed funds futures curve is priced for a…
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service assigns 25% odds of the recession starting in 2025 or later. Our colleagues continue to think that the US will succumb to a recession in 2024, probably in the second…
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury…
China's money and credit data remained weak in October. New total social financing amounted to RMB 1.85 trillion – less than the RMB 1.95 trillion anticipated and below the prior month's increase of RMB 4.12…
European markets have room to rebound in the coming weeks, however, a recession looms. What are the lessons from history that investors can use to position themselves under these conditions?
The UK economy stagnated in Q3 – a deterioration from the minor 0.2% q/q expansion in the prior quarter. Although the Q3 figure is slightly better than anticipations of a 0.1% q/q contraction, the details of the report are…
The preliminary release for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent a pessimistic signal about consumer sentiment on Friday. The headline index fell from 63.8 to 60.4 in November, below expectations of a marginal…