Housing starts and permits both disappointed in July. New construction contracted 6.8% m/m, from a 1.1% expansion in June. Permits, which typically lead housing starts, declined 4.0% m/m in July from 3.9% growth in the previous…
What do the mixed signals sent by the UK economy mean for the Bank of England, and what are the implications for Gilts and the British pound?
US industrial production fell by a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m in July, the largest monthly decline so far this year. Capacity utilization also decreased a full percentage point to 77.8% Although Hurricane Beryl distorted…
The current Fed easing cycle will likely be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon. The basis is our expectation that the US economy is heading into a rough landing. The primary driver of EM currencies is not US interest rates…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, US policy will have an impact on China’s willingness to adopt a preemptively hawkish foreign policy. But the US is in the middle of a chaotic election that…
Goods prices have normalized following the pandemic binge on goods spending and have contributed to easing price pressures overall. A large drop in vehicle prices largely drove the decrease in July’s CPI and we have…
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly embarked on an easing pivot in August, cutting the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 5.25%. The central bank also signaled further rate cuts by lowering its rate benchmark forecast to 4.…
Headline and core CPI eased for the fourth consecutive month in July, ticking down 0.1 ppt to 2.9% and 3.2% y/y, respectively. The 3-month and 6-month moving averages continued to edge lower as a result, with the former now…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Trump’s brand, legacy, and populist movement are based on the popular demand for a more hawkish US policy on trade and immigration. China has been the chief…