Policy
The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.
What To Watch
What To…
The ECB Cuts Rates And Lowers Growth Forecast…
The Fed’s Upcoming Rate Cut And The RMB…
Some thoughts on this morning’s US claims report and a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting.
Trump Still Has A Path…
August Uptick In US Core CPI Doesn’t Derail Disinflation Process…
Global Equities Will Lag Bonds…
Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and what it means for Fed policy.
Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that the election will be close. The race is still competitive and policy uncertainty and volatility will be elevated.