Monday's upgrade of the energy sector to neutral and the exploration & production index to overweight does not mean that refiners are out of the woods. In fact, the opposite is true, because the crude oil supply glut will morph…

Bearish sentiment is a red herring, as most other measures of investor positioning point to a strong undercurrent of bullishness. That is contrarily worrying.

Refining stocks have been slammed this year, and we expect more pain ahead. Companies had continued to operate at full throttle, as measured by the relentless advance in refinery production (second panel), likely reflecting expectations…