Oil

Highlights Investors like to hear non-consensus views, … : Part of our role is to help clients think about all of the potential outcomes, including ones that may not be as improbable as commonly believed. … but it seems that our Fed/rates call is…

Trepidation engulfs commodity markets like a fog weaving through half-deserted streets. Central bankers huddle in muttering retreats, growing more cautious by the day. EM growth concerns – particularly slowing trade volumes, and the drama surrounding Sino…

Highlights Hyman Minsky famously said that “stability begets instability.” The converse is also true: Instability begets stability. None of the preconditions for a U.S. recession are in place yet. The Fed’s decision to press the pause button on further…

Venezuela’s stability is deteriorating rapidly along the lines of our projections in recent years. Regime failure is at this point a high probability and poses immediate risks to global oil production. Our conviction is high because of the unprecedented…

OPEC 2.0 is building physical optionality, to deal with different possible moves the U.S. can make on Iranian oil export sanctions and waivers. This comes despite an apparent break in the sense of urgency Saudi Arabia and Russia feel re production cuts. The…

The Fed’s near-term capitulation on its rates-normalization policy highlighted by our fixed-income desks will provide a tailwind for EM oil demand this year by weakening the USD. This will reduce refined-products’ costs in local-currency terms ex-U.S., as it…