Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside in Q2, growing by 0.3% q/q annualized against expectations of 0.2%. Stronger-than-expected expansions in France (0.3% q/q vs 0.2%) and Spain (0.8% q/q vs 0.5%), as well as steady growth in…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a foreign shock is likely to tip the Eurozone economy into a recession because important vulnerabilities have emerged domestically. Policy is restrictive…
Preliminary estimates suggests that the Swedish economy unexpectedly contracted in Q2. The seasonally adjusted GDP Indicator declined by 0.8% q/q, following a 0.7% Q1 rise in actual GDP growth. Flash estimates lack details and…
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.
Just a few days after unexpectedly lowering three key borrowing rates by 10 basis points (bps), the PBoC cut the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate by 20 bps, from 2.50% to 2.30%. While the earlier cut lowered the…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, it is time to increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a 6-12 month horizon. Since February, our colleagues…
We have high conviction that continued labor market softening will tip the US economy into a recession by year-end or early next year. It will reverberate to the rest of the world given that the US has been the main driver of…
The preliminary release of Q2 2024 US GDP surprised to the upside on Thursday. The US economy grew 2.8% on an annualized basis, and 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. The two largest drivers of the acceleration were consumption (…
The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by 25bps for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. We highlighted in a recent Insight that the soft June inflation print and weakening labor market increased the odds of more…