Chinese industrial profits rose by 4.1% y/y (3.6% YTD y/y) in July, from 3.6% (3.5%) in June. Upstream mining industries’ profits contracted 9.5% from January to July 2024, whereas downstream manufacturing sectors’…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to…
The equal-weighted S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 7,096.12 on Monday. Chair Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week dispelled any remaining doubt about a September rate cut and sent…
The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession.…
The DXY hit a 2024 low on Wednesday. The decline which totaled nearly 5% from its April highs, gathered pace this month (a 3% decline in August) when labor market worries spooked markets. The Fed had already telegraphed it was…
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down the number of workers on payrolls by 818 thousand over the twelve months period ending March 2024. This largest downward revision since 2009 thus implies that the labor market has…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life…
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.75% to 3.5% in August. It had kept rates on hold in June, after having led many other major DM central banks in easing policy in May. The Riksbank also…