Market Returns
Highlights The Eurostoxx600’s short bursts of outperformance require either global technology to underperform or the euro to underperform. EM’s short bursts of outperformance usually coincide with the global healthcare sector’s short bursts of underperformance. Remain tactically overweight to…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Vibrant and broad-based bank credit growth, pristine credit quality, pent up bank buyback demand and a V-shaped recovery in bank ROE more than offset the risk of 10/2 yield curve inversion, and suggest that the path of least resistance is higher for the S&P…
Highlights 2018 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio generated a modest outperformance versus the custom benchmark index of +6bps for all of 2018. Winners & Losers: The outperformance of our model bond portfolio in 2018 mostly came from country selection on our…
The Fed’s near-term capitulation on its rates-normalization policy highlighted by our fixed-income desks will provide a tailwind for EM oil demand this year by weakening the USD. This will reduce refined-products’ costs in local-currency terms ex-U.S., as it buoys EM growth prospects.1 If, as we…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The budding recovery in Chinese infrastructure outlays and easing in monetary conditions, a pause in the U.S. dollar’s rally on the back of a more dovish Fed and improving domestic steel final-demand dynamics along with compelling valuations and technicals, all…
The oil rout that began in October appears to have run its course, based on positioning, sentiment and technicals. All the same, several cross-market gauges we designed to assess investors’ conviction on global macro conditions continue to support a cautious view over the short term. This…
Highlights EM equity and credit outperformance versus the U.S. in the past three months was an aberration in the cyclical and structural downtrend. Hence, the recent outperformance of EM assets provides a good entry point for investors to short EM/China assets against their U.S. counterparts…
Highlights All of our recent investment recommendations have performed very strongly but have further to go: 1. Own a combination of European banks plus U.S. T-bonds. 2. Overweight EM versus DM. 3. Overweight European versus U.S. equities. 4. …
Dear Client, This Wednesday January 9th 2019, we are publishing a joint report co-written with BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy team. There will be no report on Friday. Best Regards, Mathieu Savary, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy mathieu@bcaresearch.com Highlights So What? U.S.…
Highlights Chart 1Checklist To Buy Credit
Checklist To Buy Credit…