Market Returns
Highlights BCA’s China Investment Strategy team recommended that investors upgrade Chinese stocks to overweight (both investable and domestic) in a Special Alert last week. Investors had a legitimate macro fundamental basis to go overweight Chinese stocks as of February 15, but we hesitated to…
Highlights Q1/2019 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark index by -17bps in the first quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The underperformance came from the government side of the portfolio (-40bps), where our below-benchmark…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Yield curve dynamics, higher oil prices, recovering balance sheets, and compelling valuations and technicals all suggest that energy stocks will burst higher in the coming months. Melting medical cost inflation, BCA’s rising interest rate expectations along…
Dear Client, I hosted a Webcast on Thursday, April 4th, during which I discussed the major investment themes and views I see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond. A replay can be accessed from this link. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Highlights The exodus…
Highlights As long as Chinese policymakers remain committed to their anti-pollution campaign, we believe high-grade iron ore prices will remain supported by demand from newer steelmaking technologies. A continuation of the much-needed consolidation in steelmaking capacity in China – wherein…
Two weeks ago, we highlighted that S&P 500 profit margins have likely peaked for the cycle and that our margin proxy, weighed down by mounting concerns over wage growth and nil pricing power, was pointing to a further decline (top panel). We are updating this today to show BCA’s Monetary…
Highlights Chart 1What’s The Downside?
What’s The Downside…
Highlights Just when it looked like the agricultural complex was starting to perk up, it was slapped down again. After crawling its way back from a mid-2018 crash – retracing more than half of its decline – the CCI Grains and Oilseeds index plummeted in February, declining by nearly 9% (Chart Of…
Highlights For the Eurostoxx50 to outperform the S&P500, the big euro area banks have to outperform the big U.S. tech stocks. Tactically overweight Eurostoxx50 versus S&P500 as well as other pro-cyclical positions such as overweight EM versus DM… …but prepare to take profits in the…
Highlights Taiwan’s semiconductor sector is facing both cyclical and structural headwinds. Semiconductor exports will continue to contract over the next six months or so, on retrenching global demand. In the long run, Taiwan is facing increasing competition from Korea in the high-end supply,…