Highlights It's ok to ignore the September jobs report. Is the small cap comeback sustainable? Assessing the threat to the consumer from higher rates and oil prices. The ISM is over 60, now what? Feature Risk assets…

Highlights Economic Outlook: Global growth will stay strong over the next 12 months, with the U.S. surprising on the upside. Unfortunately, the global economy will succumb to a recession in 2019. Stagflation will become a major problem…

The post-election surge in optimism following Donald Trump's election has not eroded, according to the latest NFIB small business survey, and remains very close to its decade-high (top panel). Importantly, healthy consumer spending…

Highlights Key Portfolio Updates Synchronized global economic growth is driving real yields higher and boosting equities (Chart 1). Meantime, core inflation remains muted which will ensure that Fed policy stays sufficiently…

Highlights The rollover in the economic surprise index is not sending a near-term recession signal and should trough in the next month or so, as decent economic data begins to surpass now lowered expectations. Investors should be…

Highlights Increased regulatory scrutiny on the domestic financial sector may continue to create some headline risks and financial volatility, but the real economic impact should be marginal. The recent regulatory crackdown has mainly…

Highlights It is difficult to judge how much of the recent unwind of the Trump Trades has been due to data disappointments versus rising geopolitical tensions. We do not believe that an attack on North Korea is imminent. Rather, U.S.…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The consumer staples recovery is sales-driven, underscoring that additional outperformance lies ahead. The lagging hypermarkets and retail food industries are starting to play catch up, reflecting a…

Special Report

Highlights Small caps have not consistently outperformed large caps. However, the cyclical nature of small-cap relative performance may provide tactical timing opportunities. Index methodology plays a very important role in the…

The latest NFIB small business survey revealed that broad based small business optimism is holding up after an incredible post-election surge. This resilience provides confidence that small businesses are experiencing a sustainable…