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Manufacturing

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CoreMacro
US Consumers Are Not All The Same

Middle-aged households have lagged youngish and older households since the pandemic and the 40-to-54 cohort is worse off than it was at the end of 2019. The fragmenting of the seemingly monolithic US consumer widens the path to a recession and we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.

Doug Peta
1 year ago
Essentials
Mixed DM Flash PMIs
Developed markets Flash PMIs estimates for October were mixed, with resilient US numbers and weakness elsewhere. The eurozone composite met expectations but remains below the 50-level expansion threshold. Germany outperformed expectations as foreshadowed by…
1 year ago
Essentials
Decelerating East Asian Trade Confirms Global Slowdown
September numbers for East Asian trade disappointed across the board. Japanese exports dropped 1.7% year-on-year (YoY) after rising 5.5% in August, and Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports decelerated to 2.7%YoY after previously rising more than 10%.…
2 years ago
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CoreMacroFICC
The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
Essentials
China Stimulus: Missing The Mark
China’s Housing Administration Chief held a press conference yesterday to unveil two property-sector stimulus plans. According to our China strategists, the details were underwhelming and led to a decline in Chinese equities. The major plan doubles credit…
2 years ago
Essentials
Hard Data Shows Further Evidence Of Global Slowdown
Japanese core machinery orders decreased by 1.9% in August and dropped 3.4% year-over-year, missing expectations for modest growth. This decline reversed July’s improvement, when machinery orders grew at an 8.7% annual pace. Japanese core machinery orders are…
2 years ago
Essentials
A Bearish Signal From Commodities
While recent cross-asset developments have sent a risk-on signal, with equities and bond yields both higher, the commodity complex has recently been sending a more somber message. “Dr. Copper” is a bellwether for the global economy given its industrial usage,…
2 years ago
Essentials
A Disappointing First Read On US Manufacturing
After improving throughout the summer, the October release of the first monthly regional Fed manufacturing survey sent a negative signal about US manufacturing activity. General business conditions from the Empire State Manufacturing survey fell 23 points to…
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

Mathieu Savary
2 years ago
Essentials
BoJ To Keep Normalizing Despite Dovish Ishiba
The Bank of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey – a gauge of sentiment among business owners – disappointed in September. The Current Conditions and the Outlook indices deteriorated from 49.0 to 47.8 and from 50.3 to 49.7, below expectations of an improvement in…
2 years ago

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