Executive Summary Brazil: NPL Provisioning Cycles Explain Bank Share Prices Inflation is well above the central bank’s target. To assert their credibility, monetary authorities have no choice but to extend the rate…
Strong domestic growth and sky-high oil prices have supported the rally in Colombian equities and the currency this year. However, a business cycle slowdown, an uncertain outlook for oil prices, and rising political risk will…
Executive Summary The Economy Will Enter A Slowdown Colombian stock prices and the peso rallied earlier this year, but the rebound is over. Hawkish monetary and tight fiscal policies will slow down domestic demand…
The rally in Brazilian risk assets since early this year largely reflects a catch up to the pandemic boom in commodity prices. Going forward, unless commodity prices continue rising or global risk assets rally, Brazilian equities…
Executive Summary Copper Will Remain Tight Even In Recession Supply-chain disruptions arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and demand hits from lockdowns in Shanghai are increasing the odds of a global recession,…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary Petrocurrencies Have Lagged Terms Of Trade Petrocurrencies have lagged the surge in crude prices. This has been specific to the currency space since energy stocks have been in an epic bull market.Both cyclical and…
Executive Summary Chile: Stocks Rally When Inflation Rolls Over The Chilean economy is overheating. Headline and core inflation have more than doubled the central bank’s target and wage growth is surging. Odds are…
Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet Russia is escalating its aggressiveness in Ukraine, marked by the shelling of a nuclear power station, troop reinforcements, and rhetorical threats of nuclear…