Japan

Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue. European risks are limited short-term, but will surge without…

Highlights Late-cycle pressures will keep pushing bond yields higher. Global growth will remain above trend in 2019, keeping unemployment rates low and preventing central banks from turning dovish. The unwind of crisis-era global monetary policies will continue. Slowing central bank asset…

Highlights We are exploring the key FX implications of the views presented in BCA’s 2019 annual outlook. Global growth is set to weaken further in the first half of the year. As a result, the U.S. dollar should benefit from a last hurrah before beginning a long painful period of depreciation…

Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have been eagerly looking forward to this meeting given the…

Feature Asset Allocation Amid Late-Cycle Turbulence BCA today published its 2019 Outlook, Late-Cycle Turbulence,1 our annual discussion with long-time clients Mr X and his daughter, Ms X. Recommendations Monthly Portfolio Update…

Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation. Mr. X: I have been eagerly looking forward to this meeting given the…

Dear Client, Early next week, we will be sending you our BCA Outlook 2019 - our annual dialogue with the bearishly inclined Mr. X and his family. In this report, BCA editors will highlight the most impactful themes for the global economy next year, and the opportunities and risks they create for…

Feature In the late 1980s, half of the global stock market capitalization resided in Japan Furthermore, almost a third of the Japanese stock market capitalization resided in banks. It followed that to have a view on the global stock market you had to have a view on Japanese banks. Indeed, in…

Dear Client, Next week, I am on the road in the Middle East visiting clients and teaching the BCA Academy Principles of Global Macro course. There will be no regular Weekly Report on November 9th. Instead, we will be sending you a Special Report on November 6th written by my colleague Rob Robis…