Grains

… quick’s the word and sharp’s the action. Jack Aubrey1 Idiosyncratic supply-demand adjustments – some induced by head-spinning reversals of policy (e.g., the U.S. about-face on Iran oil export sanctions) – and uncertainty regarding monetary policy and trade will keep volatility in oil, metals…

While the trade-war cease-fire agreed at the G20 summit between the U.S. and China boosted grain markets – particularly as China agreed to begin “substantial” purchases from the U.S. – the future of the trade relationship remains uncertain. The agreement to work out an agreement only holds for 90…

Highlights Chart of the WeekTrade Fears Weighing On Ag Complex Trade Fears Weighing On Ag Complex…

Highlights Feature Chart of the WeekAg Vol Will Rise Ag Vol Will Rise…

Highlights Escalating trade tensions - most notably between the U.S. and China, and the U.S. and its NAFTA partners - threaten the outperformance ags posted in 1Q18, which was driven by unfavorable weather and transportation disruptions in major producing regions, along with a weak dollar.…

Highlights Agricultural markets are informationally efficient for the most part, which is to say that at any given time, prices already reflect most public information available to traders, and a lot of private information as well. Even so, we believe markets are underestimating the Fed's resolve…

Highlights The uptick in world oil demand in the wake of a strengthening global upturn - the first since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) - coupled with continued production discipline by OPEC 2.0, will accelerate inventory draws, and lift prices above our previous expectation. Even though we…

Highlights 2017/18 fundamentals are supportive for corn. Lower production and stronger demand will put the market into a deficit. China's E10 mandate is a boon for ethanol, and the ags used to produce it. Imports will be needed in the transition phase. Fed's interest-rate normalization is a…

Highlights China's supply-side structural reforms will focus mainly on its coal and steel markets this year. In addition, environmental policies will become stricter in 2017, as Beijing puts more weight on environmental protection than economic development. As as result, supply growth will slow,…