Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…
Executive Summary US Equity Drawdowns During Geopolitical Crises/Commodity Shocks The most recent examples of geopolitical and commodity price shocks similar the current one include the Cuban missile crisis in 1962,…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service concluded last Thursday that the risk of Armageddon has risen dramatically. Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything…
Executive Summary Nuclear Worries Take Center Stage Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything less would be seen as a defeat for him. Assuming he succeeds, and it is far…
Executive Summary No Contagion Yet The risk of contagion into other FX pairs from the collapse of the RUB remains contained but is rising. The main transmission mechanism will be a global rush into dollars, should the…
Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet Russia is escalating its aggressiveness in Ukraine, marked by the shelling of a nuclear power station, troop reinforcements, and rhetorical threats of nuclear…
Russia's oil and gas exports last year accounted for almost 40% of the government's budget. According to Russia's central bank, crude and product revenue last year amounted to just under $180 billion, while pipeline…
Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the…
Executive Summary Russian Stocks Are Breaking Below Their 2008 And 2015 Lows The Kremlin will not halt its military operations in Ukraine for now. The strategic objective of Putin is to bring Ukraine back into its…