Executive Summary Energy and National Security Will Drive the Market Our 2022 key views are broadly on track. Biden’s shift from domestic to foreign policy is dominating the other views. However,…
Executive Summary Expansion In European Defense European yields have significant upside on a structural basis. European government spending will remain generous, which will boost domestic demand; meanwhile, lower global…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should favor bourses that are least exposed to the secular US geopolitical conflict with Russia and China. The US cannot defeat China in a war, so it…
Executive Summary Biden’s Low Approval On Foreign Policy The energy shock stemming from President Biden’s foreign policy challenges could get worse, especially if US-Iran talks fail. The energy and inflation…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…
Executive Summary Global Oil Price Pushes Up Inflation Expectations The US cut off of Russian energy exports has limited immediate impact because EU trade with Russia continues. Russia is unlikely to embargo the EU as it…
Executive Summary Winners And Losers Combining Russia and Ukraine: Taken together, Russia and Ukraine account for a small fraction of global trade. However, Russia is a key player in the global energy and metals markets,…