Fixed Income

Our US bond team’s thoughts on this afternoon’s FOMC meeting and yesterday’s CPI release.

Our 2024 outlook can be encapsulated into just 39 words and three key views. Key view 1: The end of China’s housing boom means the end of the world’s main growth engine. Key view 2: If the Fed and ECB don’t kill the economy, they won’t kill inflation. Key view 3: The AI gold rush will struggle to find any gold. We go through the investment implications for the year ahead.

Our US fixed income team’s key investment views for 2024.

Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays.

The overarching macro theme for China in 2024 will be deflation and its impact on the economy, macro policies, and financial markets. Widespread deflation, in combination with high debt levels and falling real estate prices, has unleashed debt deflation and balance sheet recession dynamics. The latter are rendering monetary policy inefficient.