Highlights An analysis on Turkey is available on page 10. In the short term, EM share prices will likely continue searching for a direction as visibility is extremely low. Beyond the near term, an appropriate strategy for EM equity…
Dear Clients, In our final publication of the year, we bring you a recap of this past week’s significant events in Sino-US relations and the key messages from the Central Economic Work Conference. Accordingly, we are upgrading our…
Highlights 2019 was a good year for our constraint-based method of political analysis. Trump was impeached, the trade war escalated, and China (modestly) stimulated – all as predicted. Nevertheless Trump caught us by surprise…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Wednesday, December 18th at 10:00 AM EST, where I will discuss the major investment themes and views I see playing out for 2020. This will be…
Highlights We expect tensions from the Sino-US trade war to marginally ease in 2020, in the run-up to the US presidential election. The “Phase One” trade deal will likely be signed with a good possibility of some tariff…
Highlights We are upgrading Pakistani equities to overweight within an EM equity portfolio. Fixed-income investors should consider purchasing 5-year local currency government bonds. The balance-of-payments adjustment is probably over…
Highlights Investors should remain overweight global stocks relative to bonds over the next 12 months and begin shifting equity exposure towards non-US markets. Bond yields will rise next year as global growth picks up, while the…
Highlights The US-China trade talks will continue despite Hong Kong. The UK election will not reintroduce no-deal Brexit risk – either in the short run or the long run. European political risk is set to rise from low levels,…
An analysis on Brazil is available below. Feature Chart I-1Poor Performance By EM Stocks, Currencies And Commodities I had the pleasure of meeting again with a long-term BCA client Ms. Mea last week during my trip to Europe…
Highlights Monetary policy settings should continue to sustain the expansion,… : Tight monetary policy is a precondition for a recession. Although the line separating tight from easy is a matter of judgment, current Fed policy…