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Financial Markets

The Trump Trade And EM Fixed Income
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team sees evidence of a “Trump trade” across markets, as the dollar strengthens, Treasury yields jump, and US small caps try to break out. However, the tactical and cyclical outcomes differ. While Trump 2.0 points to tariffs…
Daily Insights
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The Trump Trade And EM Fixed Income

As the odds of a Trump victory increase, there are indications that the “Trump trade” has commenced in global financial markets, with negative short-term implications for EM. In short, the US dollar will strengthen, and US bond yields will rise in the lead-up to and after the election if Trump wins. In response, EM countries’ currencies will depreciate, and their fixed-income and equity markets will suffer over the coming months.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
A Continued Cool Wind From the East
The recent slump in globally- and tech-sensitive East Asian trade shows no respite, with advanced October Korean exports and September Taiwanese export orders data disappointing. Korean exports for the first 20 days of October dropped 2.9% year-over-year…
Daily Insights
A Re-Heating Risk?
Since the August selloff in risk assets, the main cross-asset driver was the shift from inflation worries to growth worries. Some of that price action has reversed, as TIPS breakeven inflation rates swiftly rebounded since early September. The 2-year…
Daily Insights
Greeting Q3 2024 Earnings Season
Our US Equity Strategy colleagues expect Q3 earnings to be strong enough to fuel the soft-landing narrative. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to be 4.0% year-over-year, with sales growth of 4.0% too. Yet, with average surprises of 5.6% for…
Daily Insights
Five Myths Of The Ukraine War
The war in Ukraine has ended in late 2022… for markets at least. This is the conclusion from our GeoMacro team’s latest report, which aims to dispel five crucial myths surrounding the conflict. The myths are the following: The Ukraine-Russia War Will…
Daily Insights
ECB Cuts Rates, Signals Disinflationary Process Is Well On Track
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. While the ECB is avoiding explicitly committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the disinflationary…
Daily Insights
ECB Bank Lending Survey: A Bright Spot For Europe
Banks reported an increase in loan demand from both firms and households in the European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey, marking the first rise since 2022. This demand increase occurred as lending standards for firms remained roughly unchanged after two…
Daily Insights
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Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Staying The Course

Rising stock prices and improving economic data have us re-examining our bearish thesis, but we still see deterioration in leading labor market indicators and expect it will eventually culminate in a recession. We reiterate our defensive investment recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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