Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?
Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the domestic picture indicates that Bund yields will stay rangebound over the next few months due to the tug-of-war between bond bullish and bond bearish…
Investor and business sentiment continues to improve in the Eurozone. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+3.1 to 47 in May) and Germany (+4.2 to 47.1, above expectations) strengthened to 27-month highs. Moreover, the…
German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?
European retail sales were stronger-than-expected in March. They grew by 0.7% y/y from an upwardly revised 0.5% contraction in February, upending expectations that they would continue to decline. Improved sales in food…
The final estimates of Spain's and France’s services PMIs were revised upwards of expectations in April, increasing from 56.1 to 56.2 and from 50.5 to 51.3 respectively. The services European harmonized PMI also…
The cyclical outlook is gloomy for EUR/USD. We subscribe to neither the soft-landing nor the no-landing view and expect a recession to occur in late 2024/early 2025. The pro-cyclical euro would suffer in a global downturn while a…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, US and Euro Area growth will likely converge in the next 12 months. Fiscal policy differences were the most visible headwind to Eurozone growth last…
In its latest report, BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service introduces the latest addition in its framework for investing in global inflation-linked bonds (ILB). To apply the Euro Inflation-Linked Golden…