The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today.…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025…
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest…
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?
The ECB delivered its first rate cut in June, moderating the degree of restriction rather than pivoting outright to easy monetary policy settings. Indeed, the rate cut was accompanied by an upward revision of inflation and growth…
Eurozone equities sold off 7% from their June 6 highs, according to MSCI indices. The surprise French legislative elections and renewed fears of populism and European Union exits are spooking investors. Yet, our European…
European assets are selling off as investors panic about the upcoming French election. Is this panic justified, and if so, for how long?
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, aggressive fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility contributed to the relative strength of the US consumer. However, adverse region-specific effects also…
On Wednesday, the European Commission announced it would impose tariffs ranging between 17% and 38% on imports of Chinese EVs starting next month. These duties will be applied on top of existing 10% across-the-board tariffs on…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the European parliamentary election was not an earthquake. It saw an improvement in right-leaning political groups and a deterioration in both centrist and left-…