Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
Outside of the US, forward earnings have grown at an underwhelming pace this year. Forward earnings for MSCI US have expanded by 7.3% in 2024YTD while MSCI EMU has remained flat and MSCI Japan has contracted by 4.9%. Against this…
Two of Brazil’s ever-recurring demons have come back to haunt investors: public debt sustainability and persistent inflation. According to the latest report from our Emerging Markets Strategy (EMS) team, these troubles are…
China's real GDP growth decelerated to 4.7% y/y in Q2, down from 5.3% in Q1 and below the consensus forecast of 5.1%. Domestic demand weakened, with retail sales growth sliding to 2% y/y in June, down from 3.7% in the…
Since early 2023, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 8% versus the US dollar despite the country’s central bank pushing up real policy rates by 500 basis points. BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy argues that raising…
Subdued demand for credit among Chinese private-sector businesses and households persisted through June. The stock of outstanding bank loans grew by 8.3% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace since records began in 2003.…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, extremely disappointing corporate profit growth has been the main reason for EM's poor equity performance in absolute terms and massive underperformance…
South African stocks, domestic bonds, and currency have all rallied since BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team upgraded South African assets last month following the formation of the new national unity government. The rally…
As highlighted in Wednesday’s edition of BCA Live & Unfiltered, the Chinese economy and its financial markets face several daunting challenges. Its demographic outlook is unfavorable, with a low birthrate stifling…